Stat of the Day, 21st March 2018

Tuesday’s Runner was…

4.45 Wetherby : Instingtive @ 3/1 BOG  5th at 3/1 (Led, headed before 2 out, no extra from last)

Next up is Wednesday’s…

8.15 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Sparkalot @ 5/2 BOG

A Class 4, 6f handicap (4yo+) on polytrack worth £6,469 to the winner…

Why?

This 4 yr old colt has hardly been overworked, with just six runs under his belt : 5 of them on the A/W here at Kempton over course and distance where his form reads 41171. Of those five runs over C&D, he is 171 at Class 4, with the only blemish coming when the track was deemed to be riding slow and he was coming off a 205 day absence, so I’m happy to forgive that one aberration.

He was a winner last time out almost six weeks despite hanging badly left late on, but the experience Luke Morris retains the ride and I trust work will have been done to “adjust the steering”.

Trainer Simon Dow, like his runner here, hasn’t exactly been over-active either, with just 27 runners over the last two months. That said 12 (44.4%) of the 27 have made the frame with 7 (25.9% SR) going on to win, returning level stakes profits of 7.28pts at an ROI of 27%, including 5 wins from 11 (45.5%) for 13.5pts (+122.9%) here at Kempton.

Whilst more generally/longer-term, Simon’s handicappers with CD next to their names who were also winners (anywhere) last time oout are 7/36 (19.4% SR) for 13.57pts (+27.7% ROI) since 2012, from which…

  • on the A/W : 7/33 (21.2%) for 16.57pts (+50.2%)
  • over trips of 5f to 1m : 7/31 (22.6%) for 18.57pts (+59.9%)
  • and over trips of 5f to 1m on the A/W : 7/28 (25%) for 21.57pts (+77%)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Sparkalot @ 5/2 BOG which was available from Bet365, 10 Bet & Skybet at 5.35pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 8.15 Kempton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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