Stat of the Day, 23rd March 2018

Thursday’s Runner was…

5.15 Ludlow : Flashing Glance @ 5/1 BOG WON at 9/2 (Made all, set good pace, joined and not fluent 2 out, ridden clear run-in to win by three lengths)

Our bid for a hat-trick goes in Friday’s…

2.30 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Kincora Fort @ 11/4 BOG

A Class 3, 2m6.5f handicap chase (5yo+) on soft ground worth £7,153 to the winner…

Why?

An in-form 9 yr old gelding who has won three of his last six outings and since being switched to the larger obstacles three starts ago, has a record reading 211. Both of his chasing victories have come on soft ground and whilst partnered by today’s jockey Wayne Hutchinson, 51 and 29 days ago respectively.

His trainer Noel Williams doesn’t send many runners on the short 35-mile round trip from his Oxfordshire base here to Newbury (in fact he only has this one runner today), but his record at the track stands at 3 winners from 9 (33.3% SR) for 22.01pts (+244.5% ROI) profit, so there must be something else keeping him away!

Of the nine that have come here, handicappers are 3/5 (60%) for 26.01pts (+520.2%) and those five are 2 from 3 (66.6%) for 24.28pts (+809.3%) on soft ground.

It’s also worth noting that over the last two years, Noel’s LTO winners have won 4 of 16 (25% SR) for 5.61pts (+35.1% ROI), whilst over the last 18 months, his chasers have won 4 of 15 (26.7% SR) for 6.74pts (+44.9% ROI), from which…

  • at Class 3 : 2/6 (33.3%) for 7.6pts (+126.7%)
  • on Soft ground : 2/6 (33.3%) for 2.14pts (+35.6%)
  • under Wayne Hutchinson : 3/5 (60%) for 5.5pts (+110%)
  • and at odds of 4/1 and shorter : also 3/5 (60%) for 5.5pts (+110%)

…and this fairly simple approach gives us…a 1pt win bet on Kincora Fort @ 11/4 BOG which was available from BetVictor, Betway, Coral, Ladbrokes & SkyBet at 5.55pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 2.30 Newbury

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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