Stat of the Day, 24th March 2018

Friday’s Runner was…

2.30 Newbury : Kincora Fort @ 11/4 BOG 5th at 3/1 (Chased leaders, ridden and no impression between last 2, weakened and well beaten into 5th on run-in)

Our last pick of another successful week runs in Saturday’s…

2.50 Bangor:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Comber Mill @ 9/2 BOG

A Class 4, 2m0.5f handicap hurdle (4yo+) on good to soft ground worth £4,094 to the winner…

Why?

This in form 6 yr old gelding comes here off the back off three successive wins and based upon those runs, today’s conditions seem to be perfect for him.

He likes some cut in the ground, today’s jockey Andrew Tinkler rode in all three wins, the hood and tongue tie are reapplied today, he runs 32 days after his latest win, as the last three were after breaks of 32, 27 and 25 days respectively.

So, he seems well suited here, as he bids for another winner for local(-ish) trainer Alastair Ralph. Now Alastair isn’t the most famous/well known of trainers, nor does he have the biggest string of runners at his disposal (just 62 runners in the last 15 months), but like anybody good at their profession/trade, he has found niches/areas that he appears to focus on and excel at.

Let me explain a more, you see from the 62 runners since the start of 2017, he has had no less than 15 winners (24.2% SR) returning level stakes profits of 51.96pts at a very healthy/attractive ROI of 83.8%. And whilst 62 runners isn’t the biggest sample size I’ve ever used for SotD, the number stack up really well, especially in the following areas (all of which apply today)…

  • males are 15/57 (26.3%) for 56.96pts (+99.9%)
  • less than 80 miles from home (Ludlow) : 13/50 926%) for 59.71pts (+119.4%)
  • in fields of 5 to 12 runners : 13/43 (30.2%) for 63.02pts (+146.6%)
  • hurdlers are 12/43 (27.9%) for 55.79pts (+129.8%)
  • handicappers are 9/34 (26.5%) for 26.93pts (+79.2%)
  • 16-45 days since their last run : 9/32 (28.1%) for 56.54pts (+176.7%)
  • at evens to 8/1 : 12/30 (40%) for 41.74pts (+139.1%)
  • at Class 4 : 10/30 (33.3%) for 39.76pts (+132.5%)
  • December to March : 7/22 (31.8%) for 50.02pts (+227.4%)
  • over 1m7.5f to 2m0.5f : 7/21 (33.3%) for 18.51pts (+88.1%)
  • with a tongue tie fitted : 4/6 (25%) for 14.81pts (+92.6%)
  • ridden by Andrew Tinkler : 6/12 (50%) for 43.29pts (+360.7%)
  • LTO winners are 6/12 (50%) for 13.45pts (+112.1%)
  • wearing a hood : 4/11 (36.4%) for 11.22pts (+102%)
  • on Good to Soft : 3/8 (37.5%) for 0.86pts (+10.8%)
  • 6 yr olds are 3/6 (50%) for 18.4pts (+306.7%)
  • and in Wales : 2/4 (50%) for 18.86pts (+471.6%)

So, as you can see, that despite only working from a small number of runners, Alastair is very good at specialising in certain areas…

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Comber Mill @ 9/2 BOG which was widely available at 6.55pm on Friday, whilst those with an unrestricted Betfair Sportsbook account can get 5/1 BOG if they’re quick!. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 2.50 Bangor

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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