Saturday’s Runner was…
2.50 Bangor : Comber Mill @ 9/2 BOG 9th at 5/1 (Made most until after 3 out, no extra approaching last)
The final week of the month kicks off with Monday’s…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Clondaw Westie @ 9/2 BOG
A Class 4, 2m4f Novices Limited Handicap Chase (5yo+) on good to soft ground worth £5,198 to the winner…
This 7 yr old gelding has finished 1U1 in his three efforts over fences so far, winning at trips of 2m2f and 2m4.5f, both at this Class 4 grade and he certainly likes some cut in the ground.
His trainer, Lawney Hill, has done well with her handicap chasers of late, winning 11 of 44 (25% SR) since the start of 2016 and these 44 (all male!) have returned level stakes profits of 17.6pts (+40% ROI) to those backing them blindly, including…
- those last seen in the previous 30 days are 9/26 (34.6%) for 21.2pts (+81.5%)
- those priced at 5/2 to 17/2 are 9/21 (42.9%) for 35.1pts (+167.3%)
- 7 yr olds are 6/17 (35.3%) for 14.5pts (+85.3%)
- over trips of 2m0.5f to 2m4.5f : 10/16 (62.5%) for 36.7pts (+229.3%)
- those ridden by Aidan Coleman are 6/11 (54.6%) for 29.2pts (+265.5%)
- from February to April inclusive : 5/10 (50%) for 15.22pts (+152.2%)
- and LTO winners are 4/9 (44.4%) for 13.1pts (+145.4%)
In addition to the 6 wins from 11 noted above, jockey Aidan Coleman’s own record is good here at this venue, winning 29 of 152 (19.1% SR) jumps races since the start of 2011.
And more generally, in UK Class 3/4 handicap chases since the start of 2013, males who won a handicap chase LTO 4 to 20 days earlier and now run over a trip shorter than 3.5 miles on ground with the word Good in the official description at either the same class or up by 1 or 2 grades from LTO are 198/754 (26.3% SR) for profits of 115.9pts at an ROI of 15.4%…
…pointing to…a 1pt win bet on Clondaw Westie @ 9/2 BOG which was offered by both Bet365 & SkyBet at 7.00pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!