Stat of the Day, 27th March 2018

Monday’s Runner was…

3.05 Huntingdon : Clondaw Westie @ 9/2 BOG WON at 8/1 (Chased leaders, 2nd after 3rd, hit 6th, mistake and lost 2nd 9th, mistake 4 out, challenged last, soon led, stayed on well, clear towards finish, winning by best part of three lengths)

We continue with Tuesday’s…

4.15 Hereford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Bridane Rebel @ 7/2 BOG

A Class 4, 3m2f Mares Handicap Hurdle (4yo+) on Soft ground worth £6,758 to the winner…

Why?

A 7 yr old mare who was a winner when last seen 16 days ago staying on well to win by 6 lengths on soft ground over 2m7.5f. She’s up in trip today, but did make the frame on her only previous attempt beyond 3m1f and looked like she had plenty in the tank last time. That LTO win was at at Class 4 and also under today’s jockey David Noonan who is 1531 on the mare.

She’s 2 from 3 within three weeks of her last run, 1 from 1 in cheekpieces and will no doubt derive stamina from her father, the mighty Milan, whose 6 to 8 yr old handicap hurdlers are 22/88 (25% SR) for 99.1pts (+112.6% ROI) over trips of 3m0.5f to 3m6f on soft or heavy ground since 2012.

She also has the benefit of being handled by the under-rated (in my opinion) Jennie Candlish, whose runners are flying right now, winning 6 of 16 (37.5% SR) in the past month and whose LTO winners have won again on 28 of 98 (28.6% SR) occasions since the start of 2015 generating 52.7pts profit for the punters at an ROI of 53.8%.

And there’s more than enough there to suggest our girl will put a decent effort in today, but let’s add a little something else…

Jennie Candlish’s late season (March/April) NH handicappers are 23/80 (28.8% SR) for 101.5pts (+126.8% ROI), backed blindly since March 1st 2015 and these include of relevance today…

  • those who last ran 16-60 days earlier : 21/62 (33.9%) for 113pts (+182.2%)
  • 7-11 yr olds : 21/59 (35.6%) for 107.9pts (+182.8%)
  • at odds of 8/1 and shorter : 21/57 (36.8%) for 62.8pts (+110.1%)
  • at trips of 2m7.5f to 3m2f : 16/35 (45.7%) for 80.1pts (+229%)
  • at Class 4 : 14/32 (43.8%) for 43.4pts (+135.5%)
  • on Soft ground : 11/29 (37.9%) for 88pts (+303.4%)
  • and LTO winners are 5/18 (27.8%) for 11.2pts (+62.3%)

…giving us : Class 2 to 4, 7-11 yr olds at 8/1 and shorter 16-60 days after their last run @ 13/21 (61.9% SR) for 61.1pts (+290.9% ROI) profit, from which…

  • Class 4 runners are 9/15 (60%) for 38.3pts (+255.5%)
  • Soft ground runners : 8/9 (88.9%) for 44.8pts (+497.6%)
  • Class 4 on soft : 6/7 (85.7%) for 31.3pts (+447.1%)
  • and LTO winners : 3/7 (42.9%) for 16.4pts (+234%)

…all pointing towards…a 1pt win bet on Bridane Rebel @ 7/2 BOG which was offered by both Bet365 & SkyBet at 5.15pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.15 Hereford

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

Your first 30 days for just £1
0 replies

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *