Stat of the Day, 29th March 2018

Wednesday’s Runner was…

2.20 Wolverhampton : Awesome Allan @ 3/1 BOG 10th at 5/2 (Keen close up, switched to outer after 2f, ridden and weakened over 1f out before being quickly eased down)

We continue with Thursday’s…

4.45 Wetherby :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Blakemount @ 10/3 BOG

A Class 3, 3m0.5 Handicap Chase (5yo+) on Soft ground worth £7,408 to the winner…

Why?

This 10 yr old may well have been off the track for 341 days now, but does tend to go well fresh and when last seen was within nine lengths of the 146-rated winner (Vicente) in the Grade 3 Scottish Grand National last April, so not only is this a drop in class, it won’t be such a tough ask on his stamina either.

All things being well, he could seriously be a few pounds better than his current mark of 131, especially as he ran off 134 last time out. He has three top three finishes from three runs at this track, he stays well beyond 3 miles, he has 2 wins and a place from 5 soft ground outings and has 2 wins and 2 places from 5 at Class 3 and regarding his layoff, he goes well after a break finishing 232 in three efforts after an absence of 7 to 12 months.

He is trained by Sue Smith and due to be ridden by the excellent Danny Cook and together this pair are 51/192 (26.6% SR) for 42.3pts (+22% ROI) profit in Class 3 to 5 handicap chases, from which…

  • male runners are 51/190 (26.8%) for 44.3pts (+23.3%)
  • those priced (ISP) at 6/4 to 7/1 are 43/150 (28.7%) for 38.8pts (+25.9%)
  • on Soft ground : 26/85 930.6%) for 29.8pts (+35%)
  • at trips beyond 3 miles : 15/48 (31.25%) for 33.4pts (+69.5%)
  • here at Wetherby : 9/34 (26.5%) for 6.9pts (+20.4%)
  • and when it’s Sue’s only runner of the day : 7/14 (50%) for 22.3pts (+159.3%)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Blakemount @ 10/3 BOG which was offered by Betfair, Betbright, Paddy Power & Ladbrokes at 4.55pm on Wednesday with Coral offering slightly better at 7/2 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.45 Wetherby

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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