Stat of the Day, 30th March 2018

Thursday’s Runner was…

4.45 Wetherby : Blakemount @ 10/3 BOG 6th at 9/2 (Prominent early, tracked leaders, led 12th, headed next, weakened 2 out and faded quickly)

We continue with Good Friday’s…

3.05 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Kachy @ 5/2 BOG

A Class 2, 6f Conditions Stakes (4yo+) on Polytrack worth an eye-watering £93,375 to the winner…

Why?

So, we have a 5yr old ungelded male who has finished 211 in his last three outings. The last two are his only previous all-weather runs and he won both over this course and distance, firstly at this Class 2 grade and then up in Listed class last time out almost 8 weeks ago and was ridden by today’s jockey, Richard Kingscote, on both occasions. Based on these facts alone, I’d expect him to be on the premises once more.

His trainer Tom Dascombe doesn’t really do the A/W as much as he does Flat racing, but has had 67 winners from 293 (22.9% SR) horses that he has sent here over the last 10 years and backers have been rewarded with profits of 99.1pts at a healthy ROI of 33.8% and of these 293 runners…

  • Richard Kingscote is 52/199 (26.1%) for 96.4pts (+48.5%)
  • in non-handicaps : 36/145 (24.8%) for 43.6pts (+30.1%)
  • over this 6f course and distance : 18/70 (25.7%) for 38pts (+54.3%)
  • 5 yr olds are 10/31 (32.3%) for 43.8pts (+141.4%)
  • and in March : 9/31 (29%) for 7.1pts (+23%)

Trainer Tom also does rather well with LTO winners with a 93/367 (25.3% SR) record since 2012 that has generated 155.1pts profit at an ROI of some 42.3%, numbers that are persuasive enough with being broken down, but you know I’m going to break them down anyway!

So, of Tom’s 367 LTO winners since 2012…

  • those last seen 11-60 days ago are 71/258 (27.5%) for 154.6pts (+59.9%)
  • those ridden by Richard Kingscote are 67/240 (27.9%) for 170.8pts (+71.2%)
  • on the A/W : 38/111 (34.2%) for 23.3pts (+21%)
  • in non-hcps : 33/107 (30.8%) for 72.6pts (+67.8%)
  • over 6f : 27/86 (31.4%) for 76.3pts (+88.8%)
  • over the same C&D as LTO : 25/62 (40.3%) for 21.4pts (+34.5%)
  • at Class 2 : 13/60 (21.7%) for 32.6pts (+54.4%)
  • here at Lingfield : 15/36 (41.7%) for 9.3pts (+25.9%)
  • 5 yr olds are 10/21 (47.6%) for 36.2pts (+172.5%)
  • and running over 6f here at Lingfield ie today’s C&D : 6/11 (54.5%) for 10.7pts (+97.1%)

And I’m going to finish with something more visual and less wordy/numerical (I hope!)…

To do this, please take a look at firstly the pace and then the draw tabs on the racecard for this contest. The pace tab will tell you that Kachy is set to attempt to lead from the off and the draw tab shows that 6-8 runner races over 6f here favour those who like to lead, especially those with a mid to high draw : our boy is drawn 5 of 8.

…all pointing to…a 1pt win bet on Kachy @ 5/2 BOG which was extensively available at 5.40pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 3.05 Lingfield

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

Your first 30 days for just £1
0 replies

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *