Stat of the Day, 9th April 2018

Saturday’s Runner was…

3.00 Kelso : Yala Enki @ 5/1 BOG 6th at 7/2 Prominent, went 2nd from before 10th, weakened before 2 out.

We continue with Monday’s…

8.15 Wolverhampton

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

The King’s Steed @ 4/1 BOG

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A 13-runner, Class 6, 8.5f A/W handicap on tapeta worth £3105 to the winner…

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding has discovered a new lease of life since a move to Shaun Lycett’s yard late last year and a subsequent switch to A/W racing. Since the “transfer”, this lad had made the frame in 5 of 7 starts, winning twice and in those seven starts, he has…

  • 2 wins, 2 places from 5 at Class 6
  • 2 wins, 2 places from 5 at 8/8.5 furlongs
  • 2 wins, 2 places from 4 under today’s jockey Kieran Shoemark
  • 1 win from 2 here at Wolverhampton
  • 1 win from 2 course and distance efforts

His most recent form reads 3113 and he was only denied a hat-trick last time out when staying on into third over a mile at Lingfield under a penalty five days ago, beaten by less than a length. The way he finished that day suggests that an extra 141 yards carrying 5lbs less could well make all the difference today.

Trainer Shaun Lycett’s Wolverhampton Class 6 handicappers are 6 from 48 (12.5% SR) for 57.6pts (+120% ROI) profit since 2012, with his 5 yr olds winning 3 of 15 (20% SR) for 24.95pts (+166.3% ROI).

Meanwhile, today’s jockey Kieran Shoemark is in good nick, winning 5 of his 25 (20% SR) races over the past 30 days and also has a 3 from 9 (33.3% SR) record in A/W handicaps on Shaun Lycett’s horses with this record yielding 23.7pts (+263.3% ROI) profit. Of those nine, those racing over a mile to a mile and a quarter are 3/6 (50%) for 26.7pts (+445%).

And finally (!) and a bit more generally…

In UK A/W handicaps over trips of 6 to 10 furlongs since the start of 2013, horses turned back out just 2 to 5 days after a win or defeat by less than three lengths LTO are 234/937 (25% SR) for 213.7pts (+22.8% ROI), which is impressive enough as a micro, but filtered down into the context of today’s race, those 937 quick returners are…

  • 151/660 (22.9%) for 211.5pts (+32%) after a defeat LTO
  • 128/497 (25.8%) for 151.8pts (+30.5%) at Class 6
  • 90/344 (26.2%) for 92.9pts (+27%) having raced 5 days earlier
  • 86/328 (26.2%) for 107.9pts (+32.9%) here at Wolverhampton
  • 25/85 (29.4%) for 47.65pts (+56.1%) over the 8.5f trip
  • and 12/37 (32.4%) for 11.6pts (+31.4%) stepping up in trip by half a furlong (officially)

And those Class 6 runners who turned back out 5 days after a defeat by less than 3 lengths are 29/120 (24.2% SR) for 46.6pts (+38.8% ROI)

…pointing to…a 1pt win bet on The King’s Steed @ 4/1 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.05pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 8.15 Wolverhampton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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