Stat of the Day, 10th April 2018

Monday’s Runner was…

8.15 Wolverhampton : The King’s Steed @ 4/1 BOG 10th at 2/1 (Led after 1f, ridden over 2f out, headed over 1f out, weakened final furlong)

And now to Tuesday’s…

2.50 Hexham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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PC Dixon @ 7/2 or even 4/1 BOG

A 5-runner, Class 4,  2m novice handicap hurdle on heavy ground worth £4809 to the winner…

Why?

Well, in what looks a fairly average sort of contest, we’ve a 5yr old gelding who despite not winning often enough comes here in good nick, having finished 242212 in his last six runs. Interestingly the recent win was here at Hexham 25 days ago over today’s course and distance, also at Class 4 on heavy ground when partnered by today’s jockey Thomas Dowson who will yet again take a valuable three pounds off a horse already carrying less weight than his rivals.

To date over hurdles, this horse’s record includes the following of relevance today…

  • 1 win, 2 places from 4 on heavy ground
  • 1 win, 2 places from 3 in 5-runner races
  • 1 win, 1 place from 3 over 2 miles
  • 1 win, 1 place from 3 under jockey Thomas Dowson
  • 1 from 1 here at Hexham
  • 1 from 1 over course and distance

And his recent form makes him a qualifier for my 1234 microsystem, where I look for horses who won 2 starts ago (hence the 1) and were then placed 2nd, 3rd or 4th (the 234!) next/last time out. There are of course some other rules, otherwise we’d have hundred of qualifiers per month and the addition rules (which aren’t as complicated as they look in print) are…

…UK NH handicaps up to 3.5 miles / all going except the rarely seen good to firm / February to November / 2013 to now / an OR ranging from -2lb to +11llbs from LTO / running at -2 to +2 classes from LTO / and running over trips varying from -4.5f to +8.5f from LTO…

That’s a fairly wide-reaching set of specs, of course, but this generalised approach has been good for 185 winner from 851 qualifiers (21.7% SR) since the start of February 2013, yielding 314pts profit at an excellent ROI of 36.9%.

Once again, I get that you might not want to back so many horses blindly from one micro, so you could take any of the following profitable angles, all applicable today…

  • hurdlers : 89/434 (20.5) for 152.9pts (+35.2%)
  • runner-up LTO : 95/405 (23.5%) for 140.7pts (+34.7%)
  • in March/April : 54/250 (21.6%) for 139.9pts (+56%)
  • at trips of 2m 0.5f and shorter : 50/201 (24.9%) for 170.9pts (+85%)
  • stepping up 1 class : 48/193 (24.9%) for 170.7pts (+88.4%)
  • in novice handicaps : 29/126 (23%) for 48.5pts (+38.5%)
  • 5 yr olds are 26/94 (27.7%) for 60.7pts (+64.5%)
  • on heavy ground : 19/79 (24.1%) for 35.9pts (+45.5%)
  • and here at Hexham : 10/38 (26.3%) for 22.8pts at an ROI of 60.1%

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on PC Dixon @ 7/2 or even 4/1 BOG which was available from Paddy Power and Betfair respectively (I’ll be using 7/2 for my official results) at 5.05pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 2.50 Hexham

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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