Stat of the Day, 12th April 2018

Wednesday’s Runner was…

4.20 Lingfield : Roundabout Magic@ 7/2 BOG 8th at 4/1 (Held up and never on terms, given a terrible ride IMO)

And now to Thursday’s…

4.30 Taunton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Dicosimo @ 9/4 BOG

A 6-runner, Class 3,  2m3f handicap hurdle (4yo+) on heavy ground worth £7849 to the winner…


This 7 yr old gelding was a winner last time out at Fontwell just over 5 weeks ago (36 days to be precise), when scoring by five lengths over a 2m3.5f trip on soft ground on his first crack at a Class 3 handicap. That said, he has already won as Listed hurdle race (on heavy ground) and has won 3 of 4 small field (6-8 runners) contests.

His trainer Warren Greatrex is 13 from 51 (25.5% SR) with hurdlers racing over 2m2.5f to 2m3.5f over the last two years and these runners have produced 33.7pts profit at an ROI of 66.1% and include the following angles applicable today…

  • males are 10/42 (23.8%) for 33.4pts (+79.5%)
  • those who ran in the previous 45 days are 11/36 (30.6%) for 16.2pts (+45%)
  • those sent off at 3/1 and shorter are 9/22 (40.9%) for 1pt (+4.5%)
  • those with a top 2 finish LTO are 9/20 (45%) for 7.45pts (+37.25%)
  • handicappers are 5/17 (29.4%) for 32.3pts (+189.8%)
  • in March/April : 5/12 (41.7%) for 38.7pts (+322.2%)
  • 7/8 yr olds are 2/8 925%) for 22.16pts (+277%)
  • at Class 3 : 2/7 (28.6%) for 37.7pts (+538.7%)
  • and here at Taunton : 2/3 (66.6%) for 9.53pts (+317.5%)

Whilst more generally in UK Class 2 to 5 handicap hurdles over 1m7.5f to 3m since the start of 2o13, horses who won a handicap hurdle last time out by more than 4 lengths are 309/1011 (30.6% SR) for 334.1pts (+33.1% ROI) when the following broad conditions were in place…

…Aged 5 to 11 / running off a mark equal to or up to 14lbs higher than that LTO win / at the same class or up one level from LTO / running at a trip 4.5f shorter all the way through to 3.5f further than LTO…

In the context of today’s race, those 1011 runners above are…

  • 287/894 (32.1%) for 299.7pts (+33.5%) within 45 days of that LTO win
  • 199/582 (34.2%) for 192.5pts (+33.1%) at the same class as LTO
  • 67/278 (24.1%) for 74.8pts (+26.9%) at Class 3
  • 66/228 (29%) for 40.1pts (+17.6%) as 7 yr olds
  • 45/129 (34.9%) for 58.1pts (+45%) dropping down half a furlong
  • and 16/55 (29.1%) for 19.7pts (+35.8%) over a 2m3f trip

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Dicosimo @ 9/4 BOG which was widely available at 6.05pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.30 Taunton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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