Wednesday’s Runner was…
4.20 Lingfield : Roundabout Magic@ 7/2 BOG 8th at 4/1 (Held up and never on terms, given a terrible ride IMO)
And now to Thursday’s…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Dicosimo @ 9/4 BOG
A 6-runner, Class 3, 2m3f handicap hurdle (4yo+) on heavy ground worth £7849 to the winner…
This 7 yr old gelding was a winner last time out at Fontwell just over 5 weeks ago (36 days to be precise), when scoring by five lengths over a 2m3.5f trip on soft ground on his first crack at a Class 3 handicap. That said, he has already won as Listed hurdle race (on heavy ground) and has won 3 of 4 small field (6-8 runners) contests.
His trainer Warren Greatrex is 13 from 51 (25.5% SR) with hurdlers racing over 2m2.5f to 2m3.5f over the last two years and these runners have produced 33.7pts profit at an ROI of 66.1% and include the following angles applicable today…
- males are 10/42 (23.8%) for 33.4pts (+79.5%)
- those who ran in the previous 45 days are 11/36 (30.6%) for 16.2pts (+45%)
- those sent off at 3/1 and shorter are 9/22 (40.9%) for 1pt (+4.5%)
- those with a top 2 finish LTO are 9/20 (45%) for 7.45pts (+37.25%)
- handicappers are 5/17 (29.4%) for 32.3pts (+189.8%)
- in March/April : 5/12 (41.7%) for 38.7pts (+322.2%)
- 7/8 yr olds are 2/8 925%) for 22.16pts (+277%)
- at Class 3 : 2/7 (28.6%) for 37.7pts (+538.7%)
- and here at Taunton : 2/3 (66.6%) for 9.53pts (+317.5%)
Whilst more generally in UK Class 2 to 5 handicap hurdles over 1m7.5f to 3m since the start of 2o13, horses who won a handicap hurdle last time out by more than 4 lengths are 309/1011 (30.6% SR) for 334.1pts (+33.1% ROI) when the following broad conditions were in place…
…Aged 5 to 11 / running off a mark equal to or up to 14lbs higher than that LTO win / at the same class or up one level from LTO / running at a trip 4.5f shorter all the way through to 3.5f further than LTO…
In the context of today’s race, those 1011 runners above are…
- 287/894 (32.1%) for 299.7pts (+33.5%) within 45 days of that LTO win
- 199/582 (34.2%) for 192.5pts (+33.1%) at the same class as LTO
- 67/278 (24.1%) for 74.8pts (+26.9%) at Class 3
- 66/228 (29%) for 40.1pts (+17.6%) as 7 yr olds
- 45/129 (34.9%) for 58.1pts (+45%) dropping down half a furlong
- and 16/55 (29.1%) for 19.7pts (+35.8%) over a 2m3f trip
…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Dicosimo @ 9/4 BOG which was widely available at 6.05pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!