Thursday’s Runner was…
4.30 Taunton : Dicosimo @ 9/4 BOG 4th at 7/2 (Led until 7th, lost 2nd before 3 out, soon weakened)
And now to Friday’s…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Terrefort @ 7/2 BOG
A 10-runner, Grade 1, 3m1f novice chase (5yo+) on good to soft ground worth £56130 to the winner…
This five year old gelding is making only his fourth start today and finishing 112 in his previous three outings, all over fences at 2.5 miles on soft ground. He was beaten by seven lengths last out, when a runner-up at the Cheltenham Festival 29 days ago. He looked a little one paced last time, so a step up in trip allied to an easing of the ground should help get him back to winning ways and continue his yard’s excellent start to this year’s National meeting.
That excellent start was 3 winners and 2 placers from 7 runners on Day 1 and trainer Nicky Henderson will be keen to add to a tally here at Aintree of 38 winners from 199 (19.1% SR) producing 80.9pts (+40.6% ROI) profit since the start of 2012, with Festival runners winning 23 of 144 (16%) for 51.7pts (+35.9%). I should add that this data doesn’t include the results from Day 1 : Thursday.
More generally, since the start of 2010, horses running 11-60 days after a top 3 finish at the Cheltenham Festival last time out are 133/520 (25.6% SR) for 162.6pts (+31.3% ROI), from which…
- those running in April are 117/473 (24.7%) for 172.3pts (+36.4%)
- those last seen 16-45 days earlier are 107/440 (24.3%) for 167.6pts (+38.1%)
- Grade 1 runers are 78/290 (26.9%) for 34.2pts (+11.8%)
- here at Aintree : 58/236 (24.6%) for 173.2pts (+73.4%)
- those beaten by more than 4 lengths LTO are 32/166 (19.3%) for 89.8pts (+54.1%)
- at trips of 2m6f to 3m4.5f : 38/153 (24.8%) for 47.5pts (+31.1%)
- on Good to Soft ground : 26/127 (20.5%) for 20.6pts (+16.2%)
- those stepping up in trip by 2 to 5 furlongs are 37/121 (30.6%) for 78.1pts (+64.5%)
- and those trained by Mr Henderson are 22/59 (37.3%) for 12.5pts (+21.2%)
…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Terrefort @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Betfair, Boylesports, Paddy Power and Blacktype (although the latter are non-BOG) at 5.35pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!