Stat of the Day, 14th April 2018

Friday’s Runner was…

2.50 Aintree : Terrefort @ 7/2 BOG WON at 3/1 (Held up in touch, went 3rd at 12th, hit 3 out, challenged after next, ridden to lead before last, asserted clear final 110 yards to win by 3.75 lengths)

And now to Saturday’s…

4.05 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kimberlite Candy @ 4/1 BOG

A 6-runner, Class 3,  2m7.5f Chase (Novices Limited Handicap 5yo+) on heavy ground worth £7343 to the winner…

Why?

I’ve had some connection issues overnight/this morning, so I’m (a) running a bit late and (b) going to keep this fairly concise.

This 6yr old gelding was third last time out 50 days ago a better looking/deeper race than this one and yet has been eased 2lbs in the ratings, which should help.

He has no previous run on heavy ground, admittedly, but has raced most of his 10-race career on soft ground, winning twice on soft and twice at Class 3.

He’s trained by Tom Lacey who has been somewhat of a revelation these past couple of years with his handicappers winning 36 of 126 (28.% SR) for 103.5pts (+82.2% ROI) since the start of 2016 and with today’s contest in mind, those 126 are…

• 30/108 (27.8%) for 86.5pts (+80.1%) from male runners
• 24/74 (32.4%) for 73.1pts (+98.8%) from those with a top 3 finish LTO
• 8/38 (21.1%) for 34.4pts (+90.5%) at Class 3
• 9/31 (29%) for 7.82pts (+25.2%) in chases
• 5/20 (25%) for 3.27pts (+16.35%) on heavy ground
• 4/10 (40%) for 12.4pts (+124%) in April
• and 1/3 (33.3%) for 2.52pts (+84.1%) here at Chepstow

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Kimberlite Candy @ 4/1 BOG which was widely available at 8.50pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.05 Chepstow

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!