Stat of the Day, 17th April 2018

Monday’s Runner was…

2.40 Kelso : Geronimo @ 5/2 BOG 2nd at 9/4 (Tracked leaders, ridden before 2 out, one pace in 4th between last 2, no impression until switched towards stands side rail and stayed on to chase winner inside final 110 yards, just held off by a neck)

We now continue with Tuesday’s…

5.55 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Storm Over @ 10/3 BOG

A 10-runner, Class 3,  5f handicap sprint (4yo+) on good to soft ground worth £12938 to the winner…


This 4 yr old colt has three wins and a place from his five starts to date, all at this minimum 5f trip and was a winner last time out at Class 2 on soft ground. He makes his seasonal re-appearance on better ground and benefits from a drop in class too. He’s trained by Robert Cowell, whose LTO winners have struck again on 18 of 82 (22% SR) occasions over the last couple of years with profits of 24.5pts equating to some 29.9% of stakes invested, including…

  • over trips of 5/5.5f : 15/59 (25.4%) for 28.6pts (+48.4%)
  • in handicaps : 13/56 (23.2%) for 16.4pts (+29.3%)
  • on the Flat : 10/54 (18.5%) for 22.5pts (+41.7%)
  • ridden by Luke Morris : 4/16 (25%) for 9.54pts (+59.6%)
  • at Class 3 : 3/13 (23.1%) for 9.44pts (+72.6%)
  • and on good to soft ground : 3/8 (37.5%) for 17.6pts (+219.7%)

Now, I should point out that although our boy won last time out, it was admittedly almost 6 months ago and for some yards, that’s an issue, but over the last five seasons, Robert Cowell’s Flat handicappers returning from a break of 3 months or more are 11/64 (17.2% SR) for 66.4pts (+103.7% ROI), from which…

  • 3 to 6 yr olds are 11/59 (18.6%) for 71.4pts (+121%)
  • at Class 2 to 4 : 9/47 (19.1%) for 73.2pts (+155.6%)
  • after a break of 3 to 8 months : 9/49 (18.4%) for 69.4pts (+141.6%)
  • in April/May : 10/42 (23.8%) for 64.6pts (+153.8%)
  • over a 5f trip : 8/39 (20.5%) for 33.2pts (+85.1%)
  • LTO winners are 4/12 (33.7%) for 20.9ptrs (+174.2%)
  • and on good to soft: 4/11 (36.4%) for 32.75pts (+297.7%)

And from these well-rested flat handicappers, 3-6 yr olds at Class 2 to 4 in April/May after a 3 to 8 month absence are 7/26 (26.9% SR) for 65.4pts (+251.4%), including…

  • over 5f : 5/16 (31.25%) for 22.1pts (+138.4%)
  • LTO winners : 3/7 (42.9%) for 18.9pts (+269.8%)
  • on good to soft : 3/6 (50%) for 34.5pts (+575.3%)
  • LTO winners racing over 5f are 2/5 (40%) for 4.21pts (+84.2%)
  • over 5f on good to soft : 2/4 (50%) for 19.84pts (+496%)
  • and LTO winners racing over 5f on good to soft = 1/1 for 3.79pts

…giving us…a 1pt win bet oStorm Over @ 10/3 BOG which was available from 10Bet, Ladbrokes and SportPesa at 5.05pm on Monday, whilst bet365 were alone in offering 7/2 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 5.55 Newmarket

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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