Stat of the Day, 18th April 2018

Tuesday’s Runner was…

5.55 Newmarket : Storm Over @ 10/3 BOG 6th at 9/4 (Tracked winner, pushed along 2f out, weakened inside final furlong)

We now continue with Wednesday’s…

9.15 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Ubla @ 10/3 BOG

A 10-runner, Class 6,  7f A/W handicap (4yo+) on polytrack worth £3105 to the winner…

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding has finished as a runner-up in his of his last two starts, both at this grade over today’s 7f trip, the latest being a mere 2 length defeat on this very track over course and distance just 5 days ago. That said, he has won here before, he’s also won at this grade, has won at this trip and has also won when racing just five days after a previous run, so conditions aren’t entirely alien to him.

Some people suggest horses don’t run as well when turned back out quickly, but in UK A/W handicaps since the start of 2013, horses turned back out just 2 to 5 days after a defeat by less than 3 lengths are 151/661 (22.8% SR) for 210.5pts (+31.8% ROI) profit over trips of 6 to 10 furlongs and here are ten relevant angles from that main stat…

  1. males are 117/492 (23.8%) for 178.8pts (+36.3%)
  2. those beaten by 1 to 3 lengths LTO are 88/432 (20.4%) for 152.7pts (+35.4%)
  3. at the same class as LTO : 102/430 (23.7%) for 170.5pts (+39.7%)
  4. at Class 6 : 82.352 (23.3%) for 143.8pts (+40.9%)
  5. same distance as LTO : 69/302 (22.9%) for 128.3pts (+42.5%)
  6. 5 days since last run : 54/237 (22.8%) for 64.4pts (+27.2%)
  7. same course and distance as LTO : 34/138 (24.6%) for 84.4pts (+61.1%)
  8. 5 yr olds are 31/132 (23.5%) for 46pts (+34.9%)
  9. here at Kempton : 28/108 (25.9%) for 66.1pts (+61.2%)
  10. and at the same course, distance and class as LTO : 22/83 (26.5%) for 76.7pts (+92.4%)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Ubla @ 10/3 BOG which was available from Betfair, BetVictor, SkyBet & Paddy Power at 6.05pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 9.15 Kempton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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