Stat of the Day, 19th April 2018

Wednesday’s Runner was…

9.15 Kempton : Ubla @ 10/3 BOG non-runner (Result / report to follow later)

We now continue with Thursday’s…

9.15 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Lord Murphy @ 4/1 BOG

A 14-runner, Class 6,  7f A/W Classified Stakes (3yo+) on tapeta worth £3105 to the winner…


A fairly simple approach today, but one I still expect to bear fruit!

A 5 yr old gelding who was a winner on tapeta in this grade over this trip last time out 10 days ago and is by Holy Roman Emperor, whose 3-5 yr olds are 7/35 (20% SR) for 56.86pts (+162.5% ROI) in Class 6, 7f contests on tapeta since the start of 2015.

There you go, I told you it was a simple approach today.

I’m only joking, of course! There is a bit more!

He’s trained by Daniel Mark Loughnane, who since 2009 is 16/38 (42.1% SR) for 48.56pts (+127.8% ROI) profit with horses running at the same class and trip as an LTO win in the previous 6 to 20 days. And from those 38 quickly turned back out runners…

  • those running on the A/W are 14/30 (46.7%) for 46.6pts (+155.3%)
  • at Class 6 : 14/28 (50%) for 44.77pts (+159.9%)
  • on Tapeta : 5/15 (33.3%) for 22.54pts (+150.3%)
  • 5 yr olds are 4/9 (44.4%) for 9.7pts (+107.7%)
  • and at a 7f trip : 2/4 (50%) for 21.54pts (+538.5%)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Lord Murphy @ 4/1 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.25pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 9.15 Newcastle

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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