Stat of the Day, 20th April 2018

Thursday’s Runner was…

9.15 Newcastle : Lord Murphy @ 4/1 BOG 9th at 3/1 (Mid-division, headway over 2f out, soon chasing leaders, weakened final furlong)

We now continue with Friday’s…

3.15 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Darius des Bois @ 3/1 BOG

A 11-runner, Class 3,  3m0.5f Handcap Hurdle (4yo+) on good to soft ground worth £10007 to the winner…


An unusual pick for me, in so much that it comes from one of the “big” yards whose runners are generally avoided by me as they’re overbet and as a result tend to lack “value” (whoops, there’s the contentious v word again!). However, I think that 3/1 BOG looks too big here for this one, hence my readiness to back it : time will, of course, be the judge.

For the record, we’ve got a 5 yr old gelding making just his 5th appearance and he comes here off the back of a win on handicap debut over this trip on soft ground at Newbury last time out four weeks ago. He hit the front from a fair way out, saw off his rivals and stayed strongly to score by five lengths. Extra weight/class make this a tougher ask, but the way he stayed on added to better ground here should mean he’s competitive at worst.

The third placed horse that day (5.75 lengths back) has since been beaten by just a length at Fontwell a fortnight ago, whilst the 8th placed horse (26.75 lengths behind our pick!) was a winner on that same Fontwell card.

And now to the “big gun” and it’s no less than Nicky Henderson, who always has winners, but isn’t generally profitable to follow for reasons highlighted earlier, but he is 11 from 62 (17.7% SR) for 27pts (+43.6% ROI) in UK handicap hurdle contests since 2011 with horses who were handicap hurdle winners LTO 6 to 30 days earlier, from which…

  • those with 5 or fewer handicap runs : 8/44 (18.2%) for 28.6pts (+65.1%)
  • those with fewer than 10 career starts : 7/38 (18.4%) for 18.2pts (+47.9%)
  • those stepping up a class : 4/20 (20%) for 23.3pts (+116.5%)
  • 5 yr olds are 4/18 (22.2%) for 17.3pts (+95.9%)
  • in April : 3/16 (18.75%) for 15.8pts (+98.7%)
  • and those racing beyond 2m5f are 4/14 (28.6%) for 22.7pts (+162.1%)

So, that was me set for the bet, as they say and then I glanced across the card and saw no sign of Nico de Boinville, so I scurried back to the records with the thought that Noel Fehily doesn’t ride many for Hendo and I was right, but pleasantly surprised to read that the pair are actually 23 from 70 (32.9% SR) for 20.2pts (+28.9% ROI) together, backed blindly! This, of course, is excellent news and even more so when you see that of those 70 runners…

  • hurdlers are 16/49 (32.7%) for 27.9pts (+57%)
  • those priced at 4/1 and shorter are 21/38 (55.3%) for 17.6pts (+46.3%)
  • favourites are 14/23 (60.9%) for 5.16pts (+22.4%)
  • hurdlers priced at 4/1 and shorter are 14/25 (56%) for 17.27pts (+69.1%)
  • favourites priced at 4/1 and shorter are 14/22 (63.6%) for 6.16pts (+28%)
  • and hurdle favourites priced at 4/1 and shorter are 7/12 (58.3%) for 2.84pts at an ROI of 23.7%

Unusually more wordy than numerical (I’m not sure numbery is a word) today, but…

…all pointing to…a 1pt win bet on Darius des Bois @ 3/1 BOG which was available from Betfred, BetVictor, Ladbrokes & Totesport at 5.40pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 3.15 Ayr

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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