Stat of the Day, 23rd April 2018

Saturday’s Runner was…

2.45 Bangor : Red Devil Star @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 11/4 (In touch, hampered 1st, chased leaders 5 out, pushed along next, stayed on same pace from 2 out)

We seek an upturn in fortunes via Monday’s…

2.20 Hexham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Sky Full Of Stars @ 3/1 BOG

A 11-runner, Class 5,  1m7.5f Handicap Chase (5yo+) on soft ground worth £4549 to the winner…


This 8 yr old gelding has one win and one place from three runs over fences this year, all over 2m 0.5f on heavy ground and he was only narrowly beaten (0.75 lengths) when 21 lengths clear of the 3rd place horse at relatively nearby Newcastle last time out nine days.

He jumped much better than the winner and the omission of the last fence that day possibly made a difference to the end result, but who knows?

He also has one win and one place from three efforts over fences at this trip and this slight drop in distance allied to better racing ground might just swing it for him/us.

His trainer James Ewart has actually been profitable to back blindly in NH handicaps over recent years, as his 79 winners from 523 (15.1% SR) since the start of 2013 have been worth 81.1pts at an ROI of 15.5%, but rather than blanket betting, let’s just take a quick look at the chasers from that dataset…

  • on soft ground : 10/56 (17.9%) for 16.46pts (+29.4%)
  • 4-15 days since last run : 12/34 (35.3%) for 14.48pts (+42.6%)
  • at Class 5 : 10/33 (30.3%) for 27.32pts (+82.8%)
  • and here at Hexham : 6/17 (35.3%) for 19.67pts (+115.7%)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Sky Full Of Stars @ 3/1 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.10pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 2.20 Hexham

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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