Stat of the Day, 24th April 2018

Monday’s Runner was…

2.20 Hexham : Sky Full Of Stars @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 7/2 (Tracked leaders, jumped right 5th, went 2nd after 2 out, kept on under pressure, no impression on winner)

Our next runner goes in Tuesday’s…

7.40 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Pour La Victoire @ 9/2 BOG

A 13-runner, Class 6,  1m Flat Handicap (4yo+) on good to firm ground worth £3105 to the winner…

Why?

Well, he’s an 8 yr old gelding in decent form, having made the frame in 4 of his last five starts. They were all on the All-Weather and he gets to run here some 11lbs lower on turf, which could prove significant considering he’s coming here to Brighton, where he already has 5 wins and 6 further places from 17 efforts including…

• 2 wins, 2 places from 7 over this course and distance
• 3 wins, 3 places from 6 at Class 6
• 2 wins, 2 places at Class 6 over this course and distance
• 1 win, 1 place from 2 on good to firm ground

In addition to his own suitability, trainer Tony Carroll is 7/24 (29.2% SR) for 45.16pts (+188.2% ROI) over the last four weeks with a record of 5/11 (45.5%) for 49.24pts (+447.7%) over the last fortnight.

But it’s not just recent trainer form that sways opinion, as since 2010 here at Brighton, Tony’s horses are 30/190 (15.8% SR) for 42.73pts (+22.5% ROI) with handicappers winning 29 of 182 (15.9%) for 48.68pts (+26.75%) and of these 182 ‘cappers…

• those tilting at prizes worth less than £8k are 28/172 (16.3%) for 51.55pts (+30%)
• 4-9 yr olds are 26/147 (17.7%) for 64.46pts (+43.9%)
• 4-9 yr olds competing for less than £8k are 26/138 (18.8%) for 73.5pts (+53.2%)
• those ridden by George Downing are 8/53 (15.1%) for 45.23pts (+85.3%)
•  and 4-9 yr olds competing for less than £8k, ridden by George Downing are 8/40 (20%) for 58.23pts (+145.6%)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Pour La Victoire @ 9/2 BOG which was available from Bet365 at 5.30pm on Monday, although SkyBet were half a point better at 5/1 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 7.40 Brighton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!