Stat of the Day, 27th April 2018

Thursday’s Runner was…

8.35 Chelmsford : Ode To Autumn @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 2/1 (Keen tracked leaders, ridden over 1f out, stayed on to go 2nd towards finish, no threat to winner)

Our next runner goes in Friday’s…

2.15 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Call Out Loud @ 4/1 BOG

A 14-runner, Class 5,  7f Flat Handicap (34yo+) on soft ground worth £3752 to the winner…

Why?

This 69-rated 6 yr old gelding was a runner-up last time out 6 days ago, when heading the “wrong” group in a big field (19 ran!) at relatively nearby Thirsk off the same mark as today.

To date, he’s a former Doncaster winner, a winner on both good to soft and heavy (I’m not sure which way the weather will go nowadays!), a winner after just five days rest and has the following of relevance today…

  • 7 wins from 29 with a tongue tie
  • 5 from 20 under jockey Ali Rawlinson
  • 5 from 19 at this trip
  • 5 from 18 in a visor
  • 5 from 16 at Class 5
  • 1 from 2 over course and distance

His trainer Mick Appleby has his horses in decent enough form, with 6 winners from 32 (18.75% SR) generating profits of 17.082pts at an ROI of 55.7% over ther last month, including…

  • Class 5 : 3/12 (25%) for 9.49pts (+79.1%)
  • Ali Rawlinson : 2/6 (33.3%) for 2.76pts (+46.1%)

The Class 5 angle is key here, much of SotD’s output is done at or around this level and I have a small group of trainers to keep an eye on at this grade, especially in UK Flat (turf) handicaps and Mr Appleby is one of them, for since 2010, his record in UK Class 5 Flat handicaps stands at 55/440 (12.5% SR) for 423.94pts (+96.35% ROI) and these 440 runners include the following of relevance today…

  • Sub-£4k prize money : 52/416 (12.5%) for 424.7pts (+102.1%)
  • beaten by 0.25 lengths or more LTO : 52/378 (13.8%) for 465.5pts (+123.1%)
  • OR of 61 to 70 : 39/284 (13.7%) for 463.7pts (+163.3%)
  • males : 35/269 (13%) for 387.3pts (+144%)
  • over 6 to 9 furlongs : 27/199 (13.6^) for 389.8pts (+195.9%)
  • in Yorkshire : 21/172 (12.2%) for 279.7pts (+162.6%)
  • 2nd or 3rd LTO : 19/99 (19.2%) for 70.12pts (+70.8%)
  • 6 to 9 yr olds  :15/94 (16%) for 119.5pts (+127.1%)
  • over 7f : 8/50 (16%) for 54.25pts (+108.5%)
  • Doncaster : 5/47 (10.6%) for 11.9pts (+25.3%)
  • and former course and distance winners are 8/27 (29.6%) for 95.4pts (+353.4%)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Call Out Loud @ 4/1 BOG which was available from 10 Bet, Bet365, Betfair, Paddy Power, SkyBet & SportPesa at 4.55pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 2.15 Doncaster

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

Your first 30 days for just £1
0 replies

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *