Stat of the Day, 28th April 2018

Friday’s Runner was…

2.15 Doncaster : Call Out Loud @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 7/2 (Led, ridden over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, kept on, held towards finish)

Our next runner goes in Saturday’s…

6.00 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Leoro @ 5/1 BOG

A 13-runner, Class 6,  1m6f A/W Handicap (4yo+) on tapeta worth £3105 to the winner… 

Why?

A lightly raced (just 2 hurdle outings followed by 3 on A/W so far) 4 yr old who was a course and distance winner on his only previous visit to Wolverhampton. That was two starts ago and he narrowly failed to follow that up when beaten by half a length stepped up by 2f last time out four weeks ago at Chelmsford.

Back down in trip and back on tapeta, he stands a really good chance at a decent price today representing trainer Charlie Mann, who doesn’t actually send many to run on the A/W at all, just 37 since 2008 in fact!

Of those 37, 8 (21.6% SR) have been winners and have produced 62.5pts profit at an ROI of some 168.9% and with today’s race in mind, those 37 are…

  • 7/33 (21.2%) for 57.8pts (+175.2%) in handicaps
  • 8/32 (25%) for 67.5pts (+210.9%) in the October to May period
  • 6/23 (26.1%) for 38.48pts (+167.3%) after a break of 11-45 days
  • 4/21 (19.1%) for 9.2pts (+43.8%) at Class 6
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 49.77pts (+261.9%) since 2013
  • 6/15 (40%) for 70.27pts (+468.5%) at 1m3f to 1m6f
  • 4/15 (26.7%) for 28.6pts (+190.5%) from 4 yr olds
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 6.21pts (+77.6%) here at Wolverhampton
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 5.67pts (+189%) on tapeta here at Wolverhampton
  • and 1/3 (33.3%) for 1.44pts (+48%) ridden by Shane Kelly.

More recently (ie over the last two years), Charlie’s Flat/AW runners at 1m3f to 1m6f are 6 from 12 (50% SR) for 57.7pts (+480.7% ROI) profit with a record of 2/4 (50%) for 8.85pts (+221.2%) at 1m6f.

It’s also worth noting that as Leoro is Charlie’s only runner anywhere today that since 2013, his “solo entries” are 48/258 (18.6% SR) for 173.1pts (+67.1% ROI) in handicaps, from which…

  • those rested for 11-30 days are 36/162 (22.2%) for 176.7pts (+109.1%)
  • LTO runners-up are 11/37 (29.7%) for 37.3pts (+100.9%)
  • in April : 7/35 (20%) for 31.4pts (+89.7%)
  • those who lost by 0.25 to 4 lengths LTO are 12/30 (40%) for 59.8pts (+199.3%)
  • 4 yr olds are 4/15 (26.7%) for 62.7pts (+417.8%)
  • on the Flat/AW : 4/13 (30.8%) for 19.21pts (+147.8%)
  • at Class 6 : 3/8 (37.5%) for 17.75pts (+221.9%)
  • and here at Wolverhampton : 2/5 (40%) for 4.77pts (+95.4%)

…all pointing to…a 1pt win bet on Leoro @ 5/1 BOG which was available from Betfred, Paddy Power, Totesport & Unibet at 6.20pm on Friday with Betfair offering a half point more at 11/2 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 6.00 Wolverhampton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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