Stat of the Day, 30th April 2018

Saturday’s Runner was…

6.00 Wolverhampton : Leoro @ 5/1 BOG WON at 6/4 (Held up, headway after 2f, went 2nd over 11f out, led 3f out, clear 2f out, eased towards finish, but still won by 3.25 lengths)

Our last pick of the month goes in Monday’s…

4.55 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


Star Ascending @ 7/2 BOG

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A 9-runner, Class 4,  1m4f A/W Handicap (4yo+) on tapeta worth £5757 to the winner… 


This was actually my second best selection for Saturday behind Leoro, our 5/1 winner, but this was a non-runner and quickly reappears. Here’s why I was (and still am) keen to back it…

He’s a 6 yr old gelding in the form of his life right now, having won seven of his last eleven, finishing as a runner-up in two of the four defeats. All 11 were in A/W handicaps, including a course and distance win here last time out, 23 days ago, which took his A/W handicap tally to 9 wins from 31, including of relevance today…

  • 7 from 26 over 1m3f/1m4f and 8 from 23 with less than 26 days rest
  • 6 from 19 over 1m4f and 6 from 12 under jockey Joe Fanning
  • 6 from 12 at odds of 4/1 & shorter and 3 from 11 here at Wolverhampton
  • 5 from 9 in blinkers and 3 from 9 over course and distance
  • 6 from 8 as a 6 yr old and 4 from 8 in fields of 9/10 runners

So, he’s comfortable with the task ahead, what about his trainer?

Well, Jennie Candlish’s horses are 20 from 80 (25% SR) for 46.25pts profit at an ROI of 57.8% in A/W races since the start of 2016 and with today’s contest firmly in mind, those 80 are…

  • 19/71 (26.8%) for 49.6pts (+69.9%) in handicaps
  • 10/42 (23.8%) for 26.83pts (+63.9%) at Wolverhampton
  • 10/37 (27%) for 31.83pts (+86%) in handicaps here at Wolves
  • 10/24 (41.7%) for 29.76pts (+124%) with Joe Fanning in the saddle
  • 9/22 (40.9%) for 26.1pts (+118.7%) in hcps with Mr Fanning riding
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 26pts (+236.5%) in April
  • 4/10 (40%) for 18.05pts (+180.5%) with Joe Fanning in Wolves hcps
  • 4/8 (50%) for 29pts (+362.7%) in April handicaps
  • and 1/2 (50%) for 15.52pts (+776%) in Wolverhampton April handicaps with Joe Fanning in the saddle!

Phew, but wait, there’s more!

Since the start of 2015, Jennie’s LTO winners have won again 29 times from 103 (28.2% SR) generating profits of 65.24pts (+63.3% ROI), from which…

  • handicappers are 27/92 (29.4%) for 67.58pts (+73.5%)
  • those who last raced in the previous 45 days are 27/90 (30%) for 55.21pts (+61.3%)
  • handicappers within 45 days of last run are 25/81 (30.9%) for 55.55pts (+68.6%)
  • on the A/W : 7/17 (41.2%) for 30.05pts (+176.8%)
  • over 1m4f to 1m6f : 6/12 950%) for 36.58pts (+304.8%)
  • with Joe Fanning  : 6/9 (66.6%) for 27.19pts (+302.1%)
  • at Wolverhampton : 4/8 (50%) for 28.76pts (+359.5%)

And I think I’ll stop there before I lose you!

…final advice is…a 1pt win bet on Star Ascending @ 7/2 BOG which was available from at least half a dozen firms at 7.35pm on Sunday.To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.55 Wolverhampton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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