Monday’s Runner was…
4.55 Wolverhampton : Star Ascending @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 9/2 (in touch, ridden over 1f out, kept on same pace)
We kick off the new month via Tuesday’s…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Ramblow @ 9/2 BOG
A 9-runner, Class 5, 7f Fillies Handicap (4yo+) on Good To Soft worth£3752 to the winner…
This 5 yr old mare is in decent form right now, having finished 112 in her last three outings and was only beaten by three quarters of a length when last seen 33 days ago. That was over 8.5 furlongs at Wolverhampton off a mark of 62.
She now drops back in trip and jockey Nicola Currie is back in the saddle (she didn’t ride LTO, but did ride the two recent wins) and she takes 5lbs off a mark already 3lbs lower for the switch back to turf, so we’re effectively 8lbs better off and a shorter trip! So, providing she handles the conditions today, she could potentially be very well treated at the weights.
She’s only won twice in her career so far, but she’s 2 from 6 at 7/8 furlongs and 2/2 under Nicola Currie. Both wins have come this year, in fields of 8-11 runners whilst wearing cheekpieces and one win was at this Class 5 level.
And the class of the race is quite pertinent, as her trainer Mick Appleby is a dab hand at winning such contests and is profitable to follow in Class 5 Flat handicaps with 55 winners from 443 (12.4% SR) providing followers with 420.9pts profit at a 95% ROI since 2010 and with today’s race in mind, the following dozen angles are also profitable for those not wanting to back all 443 qualifiers…
- in races worth less than £4,000 : 52/418 (12.4%) for 422.65pts (+101.1%)
- those beaten by further than a neck LTO are 52/381 (13.7%) for 462.45pts (+121.4%)
- those rated (OR) 56 to 70 are 43/353 (12.2%) for 446pts (+126.4%)
- those who last ran 11 to 90 days earlier are 43/307 (14%) for 453.75pts (+147.8%)
- those racing in midweek (Tues-Thurs) are 34/222 (15.3%) for 448.6pts (+202.1%)
- those racing over trips of 6 to 9 furlongs are 27/202 (13.4%) for 386.8pts (+191.5%)
- those now rated (OR) 2 to 6lbs lower than LTO are 17/120 (14.2%) for 388.8pts (+324%)
- those placed 2nd or 3rd LTO are 19/100 (19%) for 69.12pts (+69.1%)
- those dropping in trip by 1 to 2 furlongs are 14/78 (17.9%) for 73.48pts (+94.2%)
- those racing at this 7f trip are 8/51 (15.7%) for 53.25pts (+104.4%)
- those ridden by a jockey claiming 5lbs are 6/44 (13.6%) for 25.47pts (+57.9%)
- and those sent here to Yarmouth are 5 from 38 (13.2%) for 20.66pts (+54.4%)
You can, of course, then combine some of the above to make micros for yourself, but I’ll leave it here for now…
…by placing…a 1pt win bet on Ramblow @ 9/2 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.30pm on Monday.To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!