Stat of the Day, 4th May 2018

Thursday’s Runner was…

4.00 Lingfield : Insurgence @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 2/1 (Held up towards rear, ridden 2f out, headway over 1f out, ran on, led towards finish, headed close home by a flying finisher)

Next up is Friday’s…

7.30 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Robero @ 13/2 BOG

A 10-runner, Class 3,  7f A/W Handicap (3yo+) on tapeta worth £9704 to the winner…


It wouldn’t be unreasonable to suggest that this 6 yr old gelding might have needed the run when last seen being well beaten at Haydock six days ago. The mitigating circumstances were a 168 day absence, unsuitably soft ground and racing at a higher class than today. He’s now back down at Class 3 and back on the All-Weather for the first time in ten months racing on a track where he’s 1 from 2, having previously won over course and distance.

Since the start of 2013, his trainer Mick Easterby is 30 from 159 (18.9% SR) for 92.5pts (+58.2% ROI) with his handicappers turned back out just 4 to 7 days after their last run, from which…

  • males are 28/135 (20.7%) for 100.8pts (+74.7%)
  • at odds of 9/4 to 12/1 : 27/105 (25.7%) for 89.5pts (+85.3%)
  • over trips shorter than a mile : 16/98 (16.3%) for 74.5pts (+76%)
  • those unplaced LTO : 17/92 (18.5%) for 93.4pts (+101.5%)
  • on the A/W : 12/44 (27.3%) for 25.2pts (+57.3%)
  • 6 yr olds are 8/31 (25.8%) for 12.3pts (+39.6%)
  • those ridden by a 5lb claimer : 4/19 (21.1%) for 19.1pts (+100.8%)
  • at Class 3 : 4/18 (22.2%) for 20.6pts (+114.7%)
  • and on tapeta : 4/18 (22.2%) for 11pts (+61.3%)

In addition to the above, Mr Easterby’s runners are 19 from 112 (17% SR) for 56.1pts (+50.1% ROI) profit in handicaps on the A/W here at Newcastle, with those failing to make the frame last time out stepping up to win 12 of 76 (15.8%) for 64.9pts (+85.4%), whilst today’s jockey Harrison Shaw has ridden 24 of those handicappers, winning 5 times (20.8% SR) for profits of 29.7pts at an attractive ROI of some 123.6%…

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Robero @ 13/2 BOG which was available from Betbright & Hills at 5.30pm on Thursday.To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 7.30 Newcastle

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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