Stat of the Day, 7th May 2018

Saturday’s Runner was…

6.20 Doncaster : Night Castle @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 4/1 (Tracked leaders, ridden 2f out, kept on same pace, no chance with front pair when lost 3rd well inside final furlong)

We start the new week with Monday’s…

4.35 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Airshow @ 7/2 BOG

A 9-runner, Class 4,  5.5f Flat Handicap (3yo) on good to firm (good in places) ground worth £5387 to the winner… 

Why?

This 3 yr old gelding has a record in handicaps reading 3311 and therefore comes here on a hat-trick after a win at Kempton 24 days ago. No prior run at 5.5f, but he has two wins at 6f, he also has a runner-up finish and a win from two races with today’s jockey Oisin Murphy, he’s a former Class 3 winner and when ditching the hood (0 from 6 with it), he has 2 wins and a place from three runs.

Trainer Rod Millman + LTO winners + 2016-18 = 16/61 (26.2% SR) for 29.8pts (+48.9% ROI) from which handicappers are 16/54 (29.6%) for 36.8pts (+68.2%), including…

  • 11-45 days since last run : 15/46 (32.6%) for 33.4pts (72.6%)
  • at odds of 10/1 and shorter : 16/45 (35.6%) for 45.8pts (+101.8%)
  • on the Flat (turf) : 12/43 (27.9%) for 17.8pts (+41.4%)
  • on Good/Good to Firm ground : 10/31 (32.3%) for 18.6pts (+60%)
  • over trips shorter than 9f : 11/26 (42.3%) for 38.7pts (+148.7%)
  • 3 yr olds  : 7/20 (35%) for 15.3pts (+76.5%)
  • at Class 4 : 4/19 (21.1%) for 5.67pts (+29.9%)
  • on Good to Firm ground : 3/11 (27.3%) for 4.9pts (+44.6%)
  • those ridden by Oisin Murphy are 3/9 (33.3%) for 12.2pts (+135.3%)
  • and here at Bath : 1/3 (33.3%) for 2.72pts (+90.7%)

And speaking of Bath handicaps, Rod’s overall record in those stands at 13/74 (17.6% SR) for 75.9pts (+102.6% ROI) since the start of 2014, from which…

  • those last seen 11-45 days earlier are 10/52 (19.2%) for 43.4pts (+83.4%)
  • males are 9/39 (23.1%) for 44.3pts (+113.5%)
  • in May : 3/16 (18.75%) for 8.78pts (+54.9%)
  • and at Class 4 : 2/10 (20%) for 3.27pts (+32.7%)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Airshow @ 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 6.40pm on Sunday.To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.35 Bath

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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