Stat of the Day, 8th May 2018

Monday’s Runner was…

4.35 Bath : Airshow @ 7/2 BOG 8th at 9/2 (Tracked leader, ridden and weakened inside final furlong)

We now continue with Tuesday’s…

3.35 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Spirit of Belle @ 3/1 BOG

A 7-runner, Class 4,  1m Flat Handicap (3yo+) on good ground worth £5531 to the winner… 


Well, what we have here is an in-form 4 yr old gelding who has won each of his last three starts and whose career stats include…

  • 3 from 11 at 7/8 furlongs
  • 3 from 3 in blinkers
  • 2 from 2 since moving to Paul Cole’s yard (more on Paul in a moment!)
  • 1 from 1 at Class 4
  • 1 from 1 under jockey Raul da Silva

And now to trainer Paul Cole…

Over the last 21 months, his LTO winners have gone on to follow up 11 times from 37 (29.7% SR) generating 29.1pts (+78.8% ROI) profit along the way, which are good numbers and in the context of today’s race, those 37 are..

  • 10/32 (31.25%) for 24.6pts (+76.8%) as males
  • 11/31 (35.5%) for 35.1pts (+113.4%) at the ages of 2 to 4
  • 10/31 (32.3%) for 33.2pts (+107.2%) over trips of 5 to 9 furlongs
  • 11/30 (36.7%) for 36.1pts (+120.5%) in handicaps
  • 9/21 (42.9%) for 23.6pts (+112.4%) at 21-60 days after their last run/win
  • 7/17 (41.2%) for 33pts (+194.2%) at Class 4
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 19.6pts (+244.6%) at the age of 4
  • and 3/5 (60%) for 14.15pts (+283%) with Raul da Silva in the saddle

AND…from the above  : 2-4 yr old male handicappers over 5 to 9 furlongs = 9/18 (50% SR) for 36.67pts (+203.7% ROI), including 3 from 5 (60%) for 21.43pts (+428.5%) over the last 6 months and Raul has ridden 3 of those 5, winning twice (66.6%) and making 6.6pts (+220%) profit, including a win on today’s pick!

More generally, since the start of 2015, Mr Cole’s runners are 10/26 (38.5% SR) for 33.5pts (+128.7% ROI) profit here at Brighton with the following subsets of relevance today…

  • 7/19 (36.8%) for 23.5pts (+123.4%) in handicaps
  • 8/16 (50%) for 14.9pts (+92.9%) at ISP odds shorter than 5/1
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 21.42pts (+142.8%) during April/May
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 6.64pts (+73.8%) at Class 4
  • 4/8 (50%) for 7.64pts (+95.5%) with 4 yr olds
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 18.66pts (+311%) on good ground

…all pointing towards…a 1pt win bet on Spirit of Belle @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available from 10Bet & SportPesa at 5.35pm on Monday, although the best price was 7/2 BOG from bet365 for those able to take advantage. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 3.35 Brighton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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