Monday’s Runner was…
4.35 Bath : Airshow @ 7/2 BOG 8th at 9/2 (Tracked leader, ridden and weakened inside final furlong)
We now continue with Tuesday’s…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Spirit of Belle @ 3/1 BOG
A 7-runner, Class 4, 1m Flat Handicap (3yo+) on good ground worth £5531 to the winner…
Well, what we have here is an in-form 4 yr old gelding who has won each of his last three starts and whose career stats include…
- 3 from 11 at 7/8 furlongs
- 3 from 3 in blinkers
- 2 from 2 since moving to Paul Cole’s yard (more on Paul in a moment!)
- 1 from 1 at Class 4
- 1 from 1 under jockey Raul da Silva
And now to trainer Paul Cole…
Over the last 21 months, his LTO winners have gone on to follow up 11 times from 37 (29.7% SR) generating 29.1pts (+78.8% ROI) profit along the way, which are good numbers and in the context of today’s race, those 37 are..
- 10/32 (31.25%) for 24.6pts (+76.8%) as males
- 11/31 (35.5%) for 35.1pts (+113.4%) at the ages of 2 to 4
- 10/31 (32.3%) for 33.2pts (+107.2%) over trips of 5 to 9 furlongs
- 11/30 (36.7%) for 36.1pts (+120.5%) in handicaps
- 9/21 (42.9%) for 23.6pts (+112.4%) at 21-60 days after their last run/win
- 7/17 (41.2%) for 33pts (+194.2%) at Class 4
- 3/8 (37.5%) for 19.6pts (+244.6%) at the age of 4
- and 3/5 (60%) for 14.15pts (+283%) with Raul da Silva in the saddle
AND…from the above : 2-4 yr old male handicappers over 5 to 9 furlongs = 9/18 (50% SR) for 36.67pts (+203.7% ROI), including 3 from 5 (60%) for 21.43pts (+428.5%) over the last 6 months and Raul has ridden 3 of those 5, winning twice (66.6%) and making 6.6pts (+220%) profit, including a win on today’s pick!
More generally, since the start of 2015, Mr Cole’s runners are 10/26 (38.5% SR) for 33.5pts (+128.7% ROI) profit here at Brighton with the following subsets of relevance today…
- 7/19 (36.8%) for 23.5pts (+123.4%) in handicaps
- 8/16 (50%) for 14.9pts (+92.9%) at ISP odds shorter than 5/1
- 5/15 (33.3%) for 21.42pts (+142.8%) during April/May
- 4/9 (44.4%) for 6.64pts (+73.8%) at Class 4
- 4/8 (50%) for 7.64pts (+95.5%) with 4 yr olds
- and 3/6 (50%) for 18.66pts (+311%) on good ground
…all pointing towards…a 1pt win bet on Spirit of Belle @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available from 10Bet & SportPesa at 5.35pm on Monday, although the best price was 7/2 BOG from bet365 for those able to take advantage. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!