Stat of the Day, 9th May 2018

Tuesday’s Runner was…

3.35 Brighton : Spirit of Belle @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Took keen hold, held up in last pair, slight stumble over 6f out, headway on outside over 1f out, went 2nd inside final furlong, no chance with winner)

We now continue with Wednesday’s…

4.15 Kelso :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Sudski Star @ 7/2 BOG

A 7-runner, Class 3,  2m1f Handicap Chase (3yo+) on good ground worth £7538 to the winner… 

Why?

Since Easter last year, this 10 yr old gelding seems to have had a new lease of life, making the frame 5 times from 7 efforts, winning 4 of them! He was a winner when last seen at Carlisle 45 days ago, landing a 2 mile, Class 3 handicap chase by 6 lengths despite it being his comeback from 19 weeks off the track and the third placed horse that day (Pistol Park) has since finished 2nd and then 1st at this level.

That most recent win gives Sudski Star the following records of relevance today…

  • 9/22 with a tongue tie (6/11 over fences)
  • 8/22 going left handed (5/12)
  • 7/18 in fields of 1-7 runners (5/12)
  • 5/15 after a rest of 16-60 days (2/5)
  • 6/14 on good ground (3/8)
  • 6/9 when priced at 4/1 and shorter (4/6)
  • 4/9 here at Kelso (2/4)
  • 4/8 in blinkers (2/3)
  • 5/7 in April/May (3/4)
  • 2/7 at Class 3 (2/5)
  • 4/6 at 2m1f to 2m2.5f (3/5)
  • and 2/3 over course and distance (all over fences)

He is trained nearby in the Borders by Harriet Graham, who has had 10 NH winners from 54 runners over the past two years with this decent enough 18.5% strike rate generating profits of 49.2pts at an ROI of some 91.1% and under today’s conditions, those runners are…

  • 9/44 (20.5%) for 28.75pts (+65.3%) in handicaps
  • 9/41 (22%) for 55.9pts (+136.3%) from male runners
  • 8/32 (25%) for 34.42pts (+107.6%) from her 9-11 yr olds
  • 5/28 (17.9%) for 5.85pts (+20.9%) here at Kelso
  • 6/22 (27.3%) for 58.5pts (+265.9%) at trips shorter than 2m3f
  • 6/20 (30%) for 23.04pts (+115.2%) from March to May inclusive
  • 5/20 (25%) for 15.17pts (+75.9%) on good ground
  • and 3/15 (20%) for 9.22pts (+61.5%) over fences

Finally, since the start of 2016, NH handicappers sired by Piludski are 5/23 (21.7% SR) for 26.5pts (+115.1% ROI) over trips of 2m to 2m4f…

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Sudski Star @ 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 6.25pm on Tuesday, although the best price was 4/1 BOG from Bet365 for those able to take advantage. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.15 Kelso

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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