Stat of the Day, 16th May 2018

NB I had some major broadband issues Monday/Tuesday, so please excuse the lack of meat on the bones for the Alejandro selection yesterday. I do have my hand-written notes about that selection, so I’ll add them retrospectively later this morning, when I’ve caught up with other stuff!

Tuesday’s Runner was…

4.10 Beverley : Alejandro @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Rear division, headway over 1f out, ridden inside final furlong, kept on towards finish)

We continue with Wednesday’s…

9.05 Perth

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Creevytennant @ 5/2 BOG

A 9-runner, Class 5,  3 mile  hunters’ chase on good to soft ground worth £2998 to the winner… 

Why?

Well, this old boy might well be 14 yrs old now, but I feel he’s got at least another win or two in him before retirement and both race conditions and an apparent lack of quality competition lead me to believe that today will be a good one for him coming back from a break (he does go well fresh, thankfully).

As for his suitability for the task ahead, he had a very good season last year at the age of 13, making the frame 5 times from 6 attempts (worst result was a 4th place finish at the end of his season when he was probably just one race too far done), winning twice from the six races.

Those efforts took his career chase figures to 8 wins from 19 (42.1% SR) which is excellent at this lower level where the same horses seem to take turns at beating each other, he has won more than his fair share and during those 19 races, he is…

  • 7 from 16 going right handed
  • 7 from 12 when priced at 6/1 and shorter
  • 3 from 9 on good to soft
  • 7 from 8 at Classes 3 to 6
  • 4 from 7 in non-handicaps
  • 3 from 6 over the 3m trip
  • 4 from 5 here at Perth
  • 4 from 5 in Hunter Chases
  • 4 from 5 in fields of 8 to 11 runners
  • 2 from 3 under jockey Lilly Pinchin
  • and 2 from 2 over course and distance including a win in this very race last season by a mere 36 lengths!

His trainer Fergal O’Brien is having a decent month so far with his chasers who have won 2 and placed once from 5 in May, whilst more long-term his record here at Perth stands at 23 winners from 81 (28.4% SR) for 36.4pts (+44.9% ROI) profit, which are very healthy numbers indeed.

And of those 81 runners here…

  • those racing over 2m4f to 3m2.5f are 17/51 (33.3%) for 45.1pts (+88.4%)
  • chasers are 12/40 (30%) for 18.9pts (+47.3%)
  • those coming back from 3 months or more off the track are 4/11 (36.4%) for 15.5pts (+140.7%)
  • and hunter chasers are 2 from 2 for 3.75pts (+187.5%)

…all of which suggests…a 1pt win bet on Creevytennant @ 5/2 BOG which was available from Bet365, Skybet and BetVictor at 7.15pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 9.05 Perth

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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