Stat of the Day, 17th May 2018

Wednesday’s Runner was…

9.05 Perth : Creevytennant @ 5/2 BOG WON at 6/4 (Made all, ridden after last, just held on gamely by a head)

We stay in Scotland for Thursday’s…

4.15 Perth

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Morning With Ivan @ 3/1 BOG

A 9-runner, Class 3,  2 mile Handicap Hurdle  on good to soft ground worth £8837 to the winner… 

Why?

And another in-form runner. This 8 yr old mare has made the frame in each of her last seven races, winning five of them including the last two, so she now bids for a hat-trick today. She won over this very course and distance last time out, 22 days ago, taking her career strike over hurdles to an excellent 24.2% courtesy of 8 wins from 33 and in the context of today’s race, those 33 efforts have seen her achieve the following…

  • 6 wins, 5 places from 28 in handicaps
  • 6 wins, 5 places from 20 when running 16-60 days after her last run
  • 5 wins, 4 places from 14 over 2m/2m0.5f
  • 3 wins, 4 places from 11 on good to soft
  • 4 wins, 4 places from 9 going right handed
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 8 over 2 miles
  • 4 wins, 2 places from 7 wearing a tongue tie
  • 4 wins, 2 places from 6 for trainer Susan Corbett
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 5 under jockey James Corbett
  • 3 wins, 1 place from 4 as favourite
  • 2 wins, 2 places from 4 in 2018
  • 1 win, 1 place from 2 here at Perth
  • 1 win from 1 effort over course and distance (LTO).

In addition to her own excellent stats…Since the start of 2013 in UK handicap hurdle contests, former course and distance winners who won LTO or were beaten by less than 2 lengths are 231/1051 (22% SR) for 197pts (+18.7% ROI) backed blindly on their return to that C&D venue, from which…

  • those running over the same C&D as LTO : 149/658 (22.6%) for 126.9pts (+19.3%)
  • 11-30 days since last run : 123/561 (21.9%) for 148.1pts (+26.4%)
  • March to June : 85/380 (22.4%) for 188.1pts (+49.5%)
  • 8 to 10 yr olds  : 70/347 (20.2%) for 144.5pts (+41.6%)
  • at Class 3 : 73/268 (27.2%) for 205pts (+76.5%)
  • 8 yr olds : 34/163 (20.9%) for 43.9pts (+26.9%)
  • in May : 20/95 (21%) for 32.4pts (+34.1%)
  • and here at Perth : 12/51 (23.5%) for 16.9pts (+33.2%)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Morning With Ivan @ 3/1 BOG which was available from Bet365 and Betway at 5.55pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.15 Perth

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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