Thursday’s Runner was…
4.15 Perth : Morning With Ivan @ 3/1 BOG WON at 11/4 (Held up towards rear, headway before 2 out, ridden before last, kept on to lead towards finish, winning by there parts of a length)
We now aim for a Scottish hat-trick via Friday’s…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Isstoora @ 7/2 BOG
A 14-runner, Class 5, 1m½f Handicap on Good To Firm ground worth £4140 to the winner…
Well, we’ve got a 4 yr old filly who has 2 wins and a place from 6 runs since switching to the relatively new rising star Archie Watson’s yard and those runs include a win last time out in very similar conditions to today.
She was comfortably clear in the final furlong of another Class 5, 8.5 furlong handicap on good to firm ground a week ago and she really could have won by at least double that margin if ridden out, suggesting a 6lb rise in weight might not be enough to stop her now.
Aside from that Archie’s personal record in his fledgling training career make this a fairly “easy” pick to make, since backing all of his runners blindly has proved profitable so far with 92 winners from 456 (20.2% SR) generating 38.9pts (+8.5% ROI) profit, but 8.5% isn’t really what SotD is about, so to eliminate some of the losers, we could (with today’s conditions in mind, of course!) just back…
- those last seen 4 to 20 days ago, who are 55/231 (23.8%) for 57.7pts (+25%)
- Class 5 runners, who are 46/205 (22.4%) for 54.7pts (+26.7%)
- those racing in bigger fields (ie 11-14 runners), who are 28/134 (20.9%) for 52.9pts (+39.5%)
- jockey Andrew Mullen is 7/14 (50%) for 25.2pts (+180.1%) on the Watson runners
- those racing in Scotland are 6/11 (54.6%) for 24.9pts (+226.4%), justifying the odd foray North from Lambourn, Berkshire.
- only one previous visit to Hamilton ended up with Snowy Winter winning at 8/1 in another Class 5, 8.5 furlong handicap!
The first three of those six stats are backed by a decent sample size and from those, we can derive a small/simple micro for those (like me) who like those kind of things…so, back Archie Watson’s Class 5/6 runners in 11-14 runner contests, 4 to 20 days after their last run…doing so has produced 16 winners from 51 (31.4% SR) to date for profits at Betfair SP (which we’ll beat with BOG!) of 38.9pts (+76.2% ROI).
…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Isstoora @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Bet365, SkyBet and Betbright at 6.00pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!