Stat of the Day, 18th May 2018

Thursday’s Runner was…

4.15 Perth : Morning With Ivan @ 3/1 BOG WON at 11/4 (Held up towards rear, headway before 2 out, ridden before last, kept on to lead towards finish, winning by there parts of a length)

We now aim for a Scottish hat-trick via Friday’s…

7.00 Hamilton

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Isstoora @ 7/2 BOG

A 14-runner, Class 5, 1m½f Handicap on Good To Firm ground worth £4140 to the winner… 

Why?

Well, we’ve got a 4 yr old filly who has 2 wins and a place from 6 runs since switching to the relatively new rising star Archie Watson’s yard and those runs include a win last time out in very similar conditions to today.

She was comfortably clear in the final furlong of another Class 5, 8.5 furlong handicap on good to firm ground a week ago and she really could have won by at least double that margin if ridden out, suggesting a 6lb rise in weight might not be enough to stop her now.

Aside from that Archie’s personal record in his fledgling training career make this a fairly “easy” pick to make, since backing all of his runners blindly has proved profitable so far with 92 winners from 456 (20.2% SR) generating 38.9pts (+8.5% ROI) profit, but 8.5% isn’t really what SotD is about, so to eliminate some of the losers, we could (with today’s conditions in mind, of course!) just back…

  • those last seen 4 to 20 days ago, who are 55/231 (23.8%) for 57.7pts (+25%)
  • Class 5 runners, who are 46/205 (22.4%) for 54.7pts (+26.7%)
  • those racing in bigger fields (ie 11-14 runners), who are 28/134 (20.9%) for 52.9pts (+39.5%)
  • jockey Andrew Mullen is 7/14 (50%) for 25.2pts (+180.1%) on the Watson runners
  • those racing in Scotland are 6/11 (54.6%) for 24.9pts (+226.4%), justifying the odd foray North from Lambourn, Berkshire.
  • only one previous visit to Hamilton ended up with Snowy Winter winning at 8/1 in another Class 5, 8.5 furlong handicap!

The first three of those six stats are backed by a decent sample size and from those, we can derive a small/simple micro for those (like me) who like those kind of things…so, back Archie Watson’s Class 5/6 runners in 11-14 runner contests, 4 to 20 days after their last run…doing so has produced 16 winners from 51 (31.4% SR) to date for profits at Betfair SP (which we’ll beat with BOG!) of 38.9pts (+76.2% ROI).

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Isstoora @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Bet365, SkyBet and Betbright at 6.00pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 7.00 Hamilton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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