Stat of the Day, 19th May 2018

Friday’s Runner was…

7.00 Hamilton : Isstoora @ 7/2 BOG 9th at 5/1 (Prominent, pushed along over 3f out, every chance over 2f out, weakened inside final furlong)

We’re off to sunny Staffordshire to end the week with Saturday’s…

8.05 Uttoxeter :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Northandsouth @ 11/4 BOG

A 13-runner, Class 5, 2m Handicap Hurdle on Good ground worth £3119 to the winner… 

Why?

This 8 yr old gelding is a former course and distance winner and has been running well so far this year, winning twice and placing once in his last five runs, all at Class 4/5 over 2m/2m0.5f so conditions won’t be alien to him today.

He won by 4 lengths last time out (9 days ago) off the same mark as today under today’s jockey, the excellent Bryony Frost who should, as always, prove tremendous value for her 3lb claim. She’s in good nick too, winning 10 of 42 (23.8% SR) over the last 30 days and 4 from 17 (23.5%) in the past fortnight.

Trainer Sam Drinkwater probably isn’t a household name outside of his own home, but has excellent figures behind him from a small string of runners.

85 runners to date have brought about 10 winners (11.8% SR) when backed blindly have generated profits of 75.3pts at an ROI of some 88.6%. Whilst very good numbers, they are probably unsustainable, but do include of note today…

  • at odds of 2/1 to 8/1 : 8/35 (22.9%) for 20.4pts (+58.2%)
  • at Class 5 : 5/25 (20%) for 13.16pts (+52.6%)
  • Class 5 runners at 2/1 to 8/1 : 5/16 (31.25%) for 22.16pts (+138.5%)
  • and in May : 2/8 (25%) for 12.2pts (+152.6%)

And as 85 runners is a little on the small size for a set of data to support a selection for SotD, it’s worth knowing that…

in UK handicap hurdles during March to November (eliminating the worst of the weather!), former course and distance winners who also won their last outing (anywhere, any trip) are 135 from 623 (21.7% SR) for 129.6pts (+20.8% ROI) since the start of 2013 with those winning by a half to fifteen lengths LTO doubling up on 134 of 537 (23.1%) occasions for profits of 163.6pts (+30.5%)…

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Northandsouth @ 11/4 BOG which was available from BetVictor, SkyBet, Bet365 and Unibet at 7.20pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 8.05 Uttoxeter

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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