Stat of the Day, 23rd May 2018

Tuesday’s Runner was…

7.40 Huntingdon : Not A Role Model @ 5/2 non-runner (Self Cert : Not Eaten Up)

Our third go at starting the new week is via Wednesday’s…

2.30 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Lilys Prince @ 5/1 BOG 

A 12-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap (3yo+) over 6f on Good to Firm ground worth £3105 to the winner… 

Why?

An interesting booking here for an 8 yr old gelding making a UK debut after as many as 74 runs in Ireland, including a decent third place finish at Cork just five days ago.

Of those runs in Ireland, he is…

  • 5/43 (11.6%) in fields of 12-15 runners
  • 5/25 (20%) over a 6f trip
  • 2/7 (28.6%) within a week of his last run
  • and also 2/7 (28.6%) in the month of May.

He should benefit from Ben Curtis getting ride today, as Ben is not only in good nick right now (rode a winner here for today’s trainer yesterday), but he also rides the Ayr track well, winning 6 of 29 (20.7% SR) since the start of the 2016 season.

But the real numbers are derived from our horse making a first start in the UK, because since the start of 201, in UK Flat handicaps, Irish bred horses who last ran in Ireland are 74/634 (11.7% SR) for 141.5pts (+22.3% ROI) backed blindly, whilst in the context of this race, those 634 “Irish raiders” are…

  • 58/365 (15.9%) for 194.7pts (+53.3%) at Classes 4 to 6
  • 63/343 (18.4%) for 65.1pts (+19%) at odds of 5/4 to 10/1
  • 39/261 (14.9%) for 158.2pts (+60.6%) 4 to 25 days since they last ran
  • 31/183 (16.9%) for 128.7pts (+70.4%) here in Scotland
  • 24/168 (14.3%) for 56.7pts (+33.7%) in the months of April/May
  • 28/149 (18.8%) for 24.7pts (+16.6%) at Class 6
  • 22/124 (17.7%) for 33.5pts (+27%) lost by just 0.25 to 3 lengths LTO
  • 11/107 (10.3%) for 45.6pts (+42.6%) over a 6f trip
  • and 18/107 (16.8%) for 25.4pts (+23.7%) who finished 2nd or 3rd LTO.

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Lilys Prince @ 5/1 BOG  which was offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.25pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 2.30 Ayr

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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