Stat of the Day, 24th May 2018

Wednesday’s Runner was…

2.30 Ayr : Lilys Prince @ 5/1 3rd at 7/4 (Mid-division, headway over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong)

Next up is Thursday’s…

6.10 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Foie Gras @ 11/4 BOG 

A 9-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap (4yo+) over 1m on Polytrack worth £4399 to the winner…


An 8 yr old gelding who has won three times at this track and three times at today’s trip. In fact, he actually has three wins and one place from nine efforts over course and distance and has now slipped back to a mark just a pound higher than his last win here.

His trainer Chris Dwyer is 91/571 (15.9% SR) for 163.3pts (+28.6% ROI) in A/W handicaps since the start of 2013, including 29 winners from 163 (17.8%) for 121.2pts (+74.4%) here at Chelmsford.

And of those 163 Chelmsford handicappers…

  • those last seen 10 to 50 days earlier are 24/120 (20%) for 144.8pts (+120.7%)
  • males are 17/101 (16.8%) for 112.7pts (+111.6%)
  • those priced at 5/1 and shorter are 23/61 (37.7%) for 34.4pts (+56.4%)
  • those racing over 7f/1m are 12/54 (22.2%) for 143.6pts (+266%)
  • Class5 runners are 9/43 (20.9%) for 1.04pts (+2.4%)
  • those sent off as favourite are 9/20 (45%) for 4.93pts (+24.65%)
  • and those ridden by today’s jockey Lewis Edmunds are 3/9 (33.3%) for 8.8pts (+97.7%)

…and this simple approach gives us…a 1pt win bet on Foie Gras @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 6.25pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 6.10 Chelmsford

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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