Thursday’s Runner was…
6.10 Chelmsford : Foie Gras @ 11/4 7th at 6/1 (Always towards rear)
Next up is Friday’s…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Savannah Moon @ 4/1 BOG
A 10-runner, Class 5, Fillies Handicap (3yo+) over 1m2f on Good To Firm gorund worth £3881 to the winner…
A winner of two of her last three outings, this 4 yr old filly defied a 255-day absence to win here over course and distance 23 days ago on her only previous visit to this track, taking her career record at 9/10 furlongs to 2 wins from 3.
Her yard has been in decent nick of late with Kevin Ryan’s charges winning 13 of 79 (16.5% SR) over the last 30 days, generating profit of 23.3pts at an ROI of 29.5%, whilst today’s jockey Keith Stott has ridden 5 winners from 25 (20%) himself in the last two weeks.
Team Ryan are already 3 from 8 (37.5% SR) for 10.32pts (+129% ROI) here at Pontefract this season, whilst more generally their LTO winners are 93/524 (17.8%) for 44.8pts (+8.6%) backed blindly since the start of 2012.
I never really recommend blind backing such angles as the losing runs can be demoralising, but I prefer to focus on relevant angles, such as…
- those who last ran 4-60 days earlier : 87/425 (20%) for 100.7pts (+23.1%)
- on the Flat : 66/399 (16.5%) for 56.5pts (+14.2%)
- those who won by 2L or less LTO : 71/383 (18.5%) for 73.9pts (+19.3%)
- in May/June :18/123 (14.6%) for 49.7pts (+40.4%)
- females : 22/121 (18.2%) for 16.8pts (+13.9%)
- ridden by Keith Stott : 22/70 (31.4%) for 60pts (+85.8%)
- in 2018 : 9/34 (26.5%) for 24.8pts (+72.9%)
- and here at Ponty : 3/9 (33.3%) for 10.76pts (+119.5%)
AND…if you did want a small “bet and forget” micro, you could back…LTO winners running on the Flat, 4-60 days after a win by 2 lengths or less for 49 winners from 238 (20.6% SR) and 130.6pts profit (+54.9% ROI) : a strategy that is already standing at 11/40 (27.5%) for 29.3pts (+73.2%) since the start of the 2017 season…
…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Savannah Moon @ 4/1 BOG which was widely available at 7.05pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!