Stat of the Day, 25th May 2018

Thursday’s Runner was…

6.10 Chelmsford : Foie Gras @ 11/4 7th at 6/1 (Always towards rear)

Next up is Friday’s…

8.30 Pontefract :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Savannah Moon @ 4/1 BOG 

A 10-runner, Class 5, Fillies Handicap (3yo+) over 1m2f on Good To Firm gorund worth £3881 to the winner… 

Why?

A winner of two of her last three outings, this 4 yr old filly defied a 255-day absence to win here over course and distance 23 days ago on her only previous visit to this track, taking her career record at 9/10 furlongs to 2 wins from 3.

Her yard has been in decent nick of late with Kevin Ryan’s charges winning 13 of 79 (16.5% SR) over the last 30 days, generating profit of 23.3pts at an ROI of 29.5%, whilst today’s jockey Keith Stott has ridden 5 winners from 25 (20%) himself in the last two weeks.

Team Ryan are already 3 from 8 (37.5% SR) for 10.32pts (+129% ROI) here at Pontefract this season, whilst more generally their LTO winners are 93/524 (17.8%) for 44.8pts (+8.6%) backed blindly since the start of 2012.

I never really recommend blind backing such angles as the losing runs can be demoralising, but I prefer to focus on relevant angles, such as…

  • those who last ran 4-60 days earlier : 87/425 (20%) for 100.7pts (+23.1%)
  • on the Flat : 66/399 (16.5%) for 56.5pts (+14.2%)
  • those who won by 2L or less LTO : 71/383 (18.5%) for 73.9pts (+19.3%)
  • in May/June  :18/123 (14.6%) for 49.7pts (+40.4%)
  • females : 22/121 (18.2%) for 16.8pts (+13.9%)
  • ridden by Keith Stott : 22/70 (31.4%) for 60pts (+85.8%)
  • in 2018 : 9/34 (26.5%) for 24.8pts (+72.9%)
  • and here at Ponty : 3/9 (33.3%) for 10.76pts (+119.5%)

AND…if you did want a small “bet and forget” micro, you could back…LTO winners running on the Flat, 4-60 days after a win by 2 lengths or less for 49 winners from 238 (20.6% SR) and 130.6pts profit (+54.9% ROI) : a strategy that is already standing at 11/40 (27.5%) for 29.3pts (+73.2%) since the start of the 2017 season…

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Savannah Moon @ 4/1 BOG  which was widely available at 7.05pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 8.30 Pontefract

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

Your first 30 days for just £1
0 replies

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *