Friday’s Runner was…
8.30 Pontefact : Savannah Moon @ 4/1 BOG 7th at 7/2 (Steadied start, in rear, switched wide into straight 2f out, never on terms)
Next up is Saturday’s…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Heartache @ 9/2 BOG
An 8-runner, Group 2 contest (Sandy Lane Stakes) for 3yo over 6f on Good To Soft ground (watering, even though there’s heavy rain in the area) worth £51039 to the winner…
OK, guys (and gals, of course!), late start today, but the usual amount of research has been done, but I’ll cut down on the waffle!
A 3 yr old filly (so gets a useful 3lbs allowance) making her seasonal return some 253 days after completing a perfect 3 from 3 debut season as a 2yo.
Amongst those runs were two wins at this Gr 2 level including one (LTO) at Doncaster where she stayed on really well on similarly good to soft ground as she’ll face today. She looked like she’d get further than that day’s 5f and being another year stronger, I’d expect her to be well suited by the 6f on offer here.
Trainer Clive Cox won this race last year and comes here in good form with 11 winners from 56 (19.6% SR) for profits of 14.6pts (+26% ROI) over the last 30 days, including…
- at 5 to 7 furlongs : 9/36 (25%) for 21.3pts (+59.3%)
- at Class 1 : 2/7 (28.6%) for 1.32pts (+18.8%)
Now although Clive had the winner of this race last year, he doesn’t send many runners to this venue, but those that come tend to go well with 9 winners from 51 (17.7%) generating 43.9pts profit at an ROI of 86.2% since the start of 2013, from which…
- over 6f course and distance : 5/20 (25%) for 48.8pts (+244%)
- at Class 1 : 4/14 (28.6%) for 7.5pts (+53.4%_
- and on good to soft : 3/10 (30%) for 44.7pts (+447%)
And for those of you concerned about the horse’s 253 days off track, Clive’s runners returning from breaks of 8 to 24 months are 10 from 40 (25% SR) for 49.9pts (+124.7% ROI) since the start of 2016, from which…
- he’s 5/12 (41.7%) for 27.5pts (+229.5%) on May
- and 2/7 (28.6%) for 31.1pts (+444.7%) at Class 1
Clive also has a good record with LTO winners, but as this filly has been off track so long since her LTO win, I didn’t think thise stats were as relevant as they could be today…
…but we’ve already definitiely enough for…a 1pt win bet on Heartache @ 9/2 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 10.30pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!