Stat of the Day, 28th May 2018

Saturday’s Runner was…

3.25 Haydock : Heartache @ 9/2 BOG 6th at 6/1 (Close up, pushed along over 1f out, weakened final furlong)

Next up is Monday’s…

5.35 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Spot Lite @ 7/2 BOG 

An 11-runner, Class 6, A/W handicap for 3yo over 5f on polytrack worth £3493 to the winner… 


This 3 yr old gelding was a winner last time out when scoring at Bath on his first crack at this 5f trip. Now I appreciate that he’s making his A/W debut today, but his trainer Rod Millman is a pretty good judge about which of his horses would go well here at Chelmsford, after saddling up 5 winners from 24 (20.8% SR) for profits of 13.83pts (+57.6% ROI) at this venue to date.

Amongst those runners…

  • males are 4/18 (22.2%) for 13.43pts (+74.6%)
  • those last seen 16-25 days earlier are 3/5 (60%) for 15.29pts (+305.8%)
  • this year = 2/3 (66.6%) for 13.7pts (+456.6%)
  • and LTO winners are 1/2 (50%) for 4.41pts (+220.5%)

Speaking of LTO winners, Rod’s record with these since the start of 2016 stands at 16 winners from 65 (24.6% SR) for profits of 25.82pts (+39.7% ROI), from which…

  • handicappers are 16/57 (28.1%) for 33.82pts (+59.3%)
  • 3 yr olds are 7/22 (31.8%) for 13.3pts (+60.5%)
  • in 3yo races : 5/17 (29.4%) for 14.2pts (+83.5%)
  • and at Class 6 : 3/7 (42.9%) for 8.4pts (+119.8%)

AND…it’s also worth noting that since the start of 2013, Rod MIllman’s LTO winners who last ran in the previous 25 days at the same class and distance as their follow-up effort are 7 from 14 (50% SR) for 20.7pts (+147.9% ROI) profit, including of relevance today…

  • handicappers at 7 from 13 (53.9%) for 21.7pts (+166.9%)
  • Class 6 runners at 6 from 9 (66.6%) for 15.64pts (+173.8%)
  • and 3 yr olds are 2 from 3 (66.6%) for 1.05pts (+35.1%)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Spot Lite @ 7/2 BOG  which was available from Bet365, BetVictor & SunBets at 8.15pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 5.35 Chelmsford

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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