Stat of the Day, 29th May 2018

Monday’s Runner was…

5.35 Chelmsford : Spot Lite @ 7/2 BOG WON at 2/1 (Close up, pushed along over 1f out, weakened final furlong)

Next up is Tuesday’s…

4.10 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Roundabout Magic @ 4/1 BOG 

A 7-runner, Class 4, A/W handicap for 4yo+ over 5f on polytrack worth £5531 to the winner… 


A 4 yr old Colt with 2 wins and a place under his belt from his last five runs, that include a win and a runner-up finish (that was LTO 5 days ago) over this course and distance and they take his record on the A/W to 5 wins from 20. That’s decent enough, but with today’s contest in mind, he has…

  • 5 wins & 2 places from 17 at this 5f trip
  • 5 wins & 2 places from 14 here at Lingfield
  • 5 wins & 2 places from 12 over course and distance
  • 3 wins from 7 within 15 days of his last run
  • and 1 win, 1 place from 3 under today’s jockey Tom Marquand.

Over the last 20 months, trainer Simon Dow’s horses sent back out after just 5 to 15 days rest since their last run are 20 from 72 (27.8% SR) for 149.2pts (+125.6% ROI) profit, from which…

  • males are 19/67 (28.4%) for 143.4pts (+214%)
  • handicappers are 18/60 (30%) for 148.8pts (+248%)
  • on the A/W : 17/57 (29.8%) for 126.5pts (+221.9%)
  • those beaten by 4 lengths or less LTO are 13/26 (50%) for 142.6pts (+548.5%)
  • here at Lingfield : 8/24 933.3%) for 82.1pts (+342.1%)
  • in the March to May period : 6/13 (46.2%) for 100.7pts (+774.7%)
  • at Class 4 : 4/10 (40%) for 26.93pts (+269.3%)
  • 4 yr olds are 3/9 (33.3%) for 19.5pts (+217%)
  • runners-up LTO went one better on 4 of 8 occasions (50%) for 8.8pts (+110%)
  • and over the minimum trip of 5f : 2/7 (28.6%) for 10pts (+142.8%)

And with Tom Marquand taking the ride today, it’s worth noting that he is 8 from 40 920% SR) for 31pts (+77.5% ROI) on horses trained by Simon Dow, a record that includes…

  • 8 wins from 37 (21.6%) for 34pts (+91.9%) on male runners
  • 8 wins from 32 (25%) for 39pts (+121.9%) on the A/W
  • 7 wins from 30 (23.3%) for 37.6pts (+125.4%) in handicaps
  • 7 wins from 26 (26.9%) for 22.5pts (+86.6%) this year already
  • and 6 wins from 11 (54.6%) for 18.42pts (+167.4%) on horses sent off at odds of 9/2 and shorter

And, from the above… Marquand + Dow + males + A/W handicaps + 2018 = 6/17 (35.3% SR) for 28.14pts (+165.5% ROI), with those sent off at 9/2 and shorter winning 5 of 9 (55.6%) for 17.04pts (+189.4%)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Roundabout Magic @ 4/1 BOG which was available from Betfred, SkyBet & Totesport at 6.05pm on Monday, whilst Bet365 went one better at 9/2 BOG for those able to take advantage. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.10 Lingfield

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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