Stat of the Day, 30th May 2018

Tuesday’s Runner was…

4.40 Lingfield : Roundabout Magic @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Held up, headway when not clear run and switched right inside final furlong, ran on, not quite reach front pair and beaten by approx 1/4 of  a length)

Next up is Wednesday’s…

8.10 Ripon :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Pipers Note @ 6/1 or 5/1 BOG*** 

A 10-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Good To Firm ground worth £9338 to the winner… 

Why?

OK, so we’ve an 8 yr old gelding who at first glance looks even more out of form than I am, but bear with the both of us, please! Pipers Note won this race last year off a mark of 95 before winning again 11 days later off a revised OR of 98.

Sadly to say, he’s been in the grip of the handicapper ever since and with no wins from 11 efforts in the 49 weeks since that win, his mark has now dropped to 94 suggesting he could very well be weighted to win again.

In addition to a falling handicap mark, today’s conditions look ideal for him to improve upon an already decent record on the Flat which stands at 10 wins from 48 (20.8% SR) for profits of 32.2pts at an ROI of 67.7%, from which the following relevant race factors are at play today…

  • in handicaps : 8/36 (22.2%) for 26pts (+72.3%)
  • over 6f : 6/27 (22.2%) for 19.6pts (+72.7%)
  • 6-20 dslr : 7/26 (26.9%) for 28.13pts (+108.2%)
  • OR 85-99 : 7/25 (28%) for 32pts (+128%)
  • at 9/1 and shorter : 10/24 (41.7%) for 56.2pts (+234.2%)
  • 7-11 runners : 7/15 (46.7%) for 35.9pts (+239.2%)
  • Ripon : 6/15 (40%) for 32.1pts (+213.7%)
  • Class 3 : 8/13 (61.5%) for 40.5pts (+311.6%)
  • Ripon 6f C&D : 5/13 (38.5%) for 26.55pts (+204.2%)
  • dropping down a class : 4/12 (33.3%) for 18.8pts (+156.7%)
  • Good to Firm : 4/12 (33.3%) for 18.65pts (+155.4%)
  • and Ripon 6f C&D at Class 3 : 4/4 (100%) for 21.6pts (+540.3%)

James P Sullivan takes the ride today and since the start of the 2013 season, he is 9/72 (12.5% SR) for 103.4pts (+143.6% ROI) on Ruth Carr’s Ripon handicappers, amongst which he is…

  • 5/24 (20.8%) for 121pts (+504%) at Class 3
  • 5/23 (21.7%) for 113.84pts (+495%) since the start of the 2017 campaign
  • and 4/6 966.6%) for 124.64pts (+2077.3%) at Class 3 since the start of the 2017 campaign, including winning this race on Pipers Note last year at 15/2.

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Pipers Note @ 6/1 or 5/1 BOG***  which was available from Bet365 and Betbright respectively (I’ll use the lower price in my results) at 5.25pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 8.10 Ripon

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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