Stat of the Day, 31st May 2018

Wednesday’s Runner was…

8.10 Ripon : Pipers Note @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 7/2 (Towards rear, switched right and headway over 1f out, went 2nd inside final furlong, edged right, unable to trouble winner)

We end a difficult month via Thursday’s…

7.10 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Codicil @ 13/2 BOG 

A 10-runner, Class 2, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 1m on Polytrack worth £19407 to the winner… 

Why?

A seasonal re-appearance for this 3 yr old filly some 265 days after completing a perfect 4 from 4 season as a 2yr old, which included…

  • 4/4 under today’s jockey Luke Morris
  • 2/2 over a mile
  • 2/2 on the A/W
  • 1/1 at Class 2
  • 1/1 over a mile on A/W
  • and 1/1 at Class 2 over a mile on A/W

She’s trained by Sir Mark Prescott who has had 102 winners from 516 (19.8% SR) runners on the A/W since the start of 2015 generating profits of 74.3pts at an ROI of 14.4%, including a 76 from 272 (27.9%) record in handicaps that has produced 155 pts (+57%) profit.

And from these 272 A/W handicappers…

  • those with 3 to 10 previous runs are 68/239 (28.5%) for 139.5pts (+58.4%)
  • those ridden by Luke Morris are 65/221 (29.4%) for 133.9pts (+60.6%)
  • 3 yr olds are 53/179 (29.6%) for 120pts (+67.1%)
  • on Polytrack : 44/160 (26.5%) for 61.3pts (+36.9%)
  • females are 31/120 (25.8%) for 101.7pts (+84.7%)
  • in 3yo races : 24/83 (28.9%) for 57.6pts (+69.4%)
  • here at Chelmsford : 18/66 (27.3%) for 18.9pts (+28.6%)
  • LTO winners are 22/63 (34.9%) for 8.9pts (+14.1%)
  • over trips of 7f to a mile : 17/63 (27%) for 63.4pts (+100.6%)
  • horses with a career strike rate of 33% or better are 18/46 (39.1%) for 17.9pts (+38.9%)
  • in May : 8/20 (40%) for 11.48pts (+57.4%)
  • and those returning from breaks of 8 to 12 months are 6/13 (46.2%) for 23.57pts at an ROI of some 181.3%

…all pointing towards…a 1pt win bet on Codicil @ 13/2 BOG  which was available from Betfair, Paddy Power & Unibet at 5.10pm on Wednesday. To see what your referred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 7.10 Chelmsford

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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