Stat of the Day, 1st June 2018

Thursday’s Runner was…

7.10 Chelmsford : Codicil @ 13/2 BOG 8th at 8/1 (Towards rear, never involved : just awful!)

We now start a new month via Friday’s…

6.00 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mr Tyrell @ 7/2 BOG 

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An 11-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m on Good to Firm ground worth 3752 to the winner… 

Why?

A fairly short price about a horse that has failed to win any of his 16 starts to date, but just like my own current form, his has to improve soon, surely?

In fairness to this 4yr old gelding he was only beaten by two necks when finishing third last time out, 17 days ago and despite still being a maiden he has made the frame in…

  • 4 runs from 7 attempts at 1 mile
  • 4 of 5 races in fields of 8-11 runners
  • 3 of 5 on Good to Firm
  • 2 of 4 with today’s jockey Sean Levey
  • 2 of 3 this season
  • 2 of 2 at Class 5
  • and 2 of 2 within 16 to 30 days of his last run

Aside from that and more generally, blindly backing all Richard Hannon (Jnr) runners here at Doncaster has been a profitable venture with 34 winners from 250 (13.6% SR) generating profits of 65.3pts at a healthy ROI of 26.1%, even without adding any filters! The most obvious filter here is to focus on handicap contests, where 15 winners from 107 (14%) have made 98pts (+91.6%) profit and that’s what we’ll stick with.

Of those 107 Donny ‘cappers…

    • those last seen 6-75 days ago are 14/91 (15.4%) for 106.1pts (+116.6%)
    • males are 13/88 (14.8%) for 81.9pts (+93%)
    • 3/4 yr olds are 13/77 (16.9%) for 117.1pts (+152.1%)
    • those placed 3rd to 7th LTO are 11/55 (20%) for 91pts (+165.4%)
    • those ridden by Sean Levey are 4/30 (13.3%) for 14.7pts (+49.1%)
    • on Good to Firm, it’s 4/26 (15.4%) for 52.7pts (+202.5%)
    • Class 5 runners are 4/13 (30.8%) for 51.8pts (+398.2%)
    • and those competing for a prize worth less than £4,000 are 4/11 (36.4%) for 53.8pts (+488.8%)

…and from the above… 3/4 yr old males at 6-75 days since last run = 11/54 (20.4% SR) for 105pts (+194.5% ROI)

In addition to the above, over the last two years the yard is 35/257 (13.6% SR) for 159.5pts (+62.1% ROI) with their milers in the May to August period with those racing on good to firm winning 15 of 98 (15.3%) for 145.5pts at an ROI of some 148.5%.

And I’ll wrap this up with a look at Mr Hannon’s record in Class 5 Flat handicaps, as he’s one of a handful of trainers that I follow in this fairly specialised type of race. If you’d blindly backed all of the Hannon C5 Flat ‘cappers so far, you’d have had 72 winners from 474 with that 15.2% strike rate yielding profits of 81.2pts at an ROI of 17.1% and these are good numbers from blind backing.

In the context of today’s race, however, those 474 runners are…

  • 57 from 360 (15.8%) for 101.5pts (+28.2%) as 3-5 yr olds
  • 66 from 347 (19%) for 176.6pts (+50.9%) running after a break of 6-30 days
  • 29 from 160 (18.1%) for 102.8pts (+64.3%) on good to firm ground
  • 16 from 104 (15.4%) for 29.9pts (+28.7%) when ridden by Sean Levey
  • and 14 from 85 (16.5%) for 39.5pts (+46.5%) in June

3-5 yr olds racing on Good to Firm, 6-30 days after the last run are 41/181 (22.7% SR) for 171.4pts (+94.7% ROI) with those racing in June winning 11 of 52 (21.2%) for 56.4pts (+108.4%) whilst Sean Levey has 9 winners from 25 (36%) for 51.7pts (+143.5%)…

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Mr Tyrell @ 7/2 BOG   which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.50pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 6.00 Doncaster

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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