Stat of the Day, 2nd June 2018

Friday’s Runner was…

6.00 Doncaster :Mr Tyrell @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Tracked leader, led over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, soon hard pressed, kept on under pressure inside final furlong, headed at post, beaten by short head)

We continue with Saturday’s…

7.40 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Bellevarde @ 3/1 BOG 

A 7-runner, Class 5, Fillies Handicap for 4yo+ over 5f on Good to Soft ground worth £3752 to the winner… 

Why?

A 4 yr old filly in great nick winning twice and placing a further 6 times from her last 9 runs, mainly in mixed company and including a run reading 2231 this season and 2 wins/2 places from 5 at 5 furlongs.

A winner her over course and distance last time out (9 days ago) at her first crack at Lingfield’s 5f and although she’s up slightly in weight today, the fact she’s only running against her own sex should make this a little easier than recent contests.

Form aside, she’s also of statistical interest (which is why she’s here!), since during the 2013-18 period, Class 4 to 6 runners who won over course and distance last time out, 1 to 10 days earlier by a head to 15 lengths at odds of 6/4 to 16/1 are 176/499 (35.3% SR) for 117.7pts (+23.6% ROI) profit, and these include…

  • on the Flat : 52/152 (34.2%) for 39.3pts (+25.9%)
  • at Class 5 : 58/150 (38.7%) for 54.9pts (+36.6%)
  • May/June : 31/72 (43.1%) for 41pts (+57%)
  • over the 5f trip : 20/64 (31.25%) for 20.4pts (+31.9%)
  • here at Lingfield : 27/58 (46.6%) for 48.8pts (+84.2%)
  • on Good to Soft : 17/48 (35.4%) for 24pts (+50%)
  • in 2018 already : 8/24 (33.3%) for 8.25pts (+34.4%)
  • and on the Flat here at Lingfield : 2/3 (66.6%) for 3.3pts (+110%)

…and from the above…Class 5 / Flat / May, June & July = 12/32 (37.5% SR) for 17.84pts (+55.8% ROI) and this relatively simple (by SotD standards anyway!) approach…

…gives us…a 1pt win bet on Bellevarde @ 3/1 BOG which was available from Bet365 & Betway at 6.35pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 7.40 Lingfield

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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