Stat of the Day, 5th June 2018

Monday’s Runner was…

4.20 Newton Abbot : Global Thrill @ 4/1 BOG non-runner (Self Cert : Coughing)

We continue with Tuesday’s…

8.45 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Blazed @ 10/3 or 3/1 BOG 

A 14-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Tapeta worth £4140 to the winner… 

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding was a winner over this 5f on the tapeta at Wolverhampton in November for former trainer Roger Charlton and has since made the frame over 6f in tougher sprints than this at Kempton and Ascot.

This is just his second start for Ed Vaughan after finishing third at Ascot 24 days ago (Class 4, 6f) despite virtually falling out of the stalls and not quite seeing out the full six.

He drops back in both class and trip to a Class 5 / 5f contest which should suit him better, as should his previous win over this trip on a similar surface at Wolverhampton.

Stat-wise, it’s a fairly simplistic approach today, based around backing Ed Vaughan’s A/W handicappers who are 31/188 (16.5% SR) for 77.8pts (+41.4% ROI) since the start of 2013 and these runners include the following of relevance today…

  • 20/109 (18.4%) for 63.7pts (+58.4%) from male runners
  • 22/82 (26.8%) for 15.1pts (18.4%) from those sent off at odds of 5/1 and shorter
  • 16/81 (19.8%) for 80.9pts (+99.9%) 21-45 days after their last run
  • 4/22 (18.2%) for 21pts (+95.5%) on tapeta
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 9.04pts (+64.6%) in June/July
  • and 3/11 (27.3%) for 6.6pts (+60%) ridden by Harry Bentley…

…with males priced at 5/1 and shorter, 21 to 45 days after their last run winning 8 of 27 (29.6% SR) for 15.5pts (+57.3% ROI) profit and this simplified approach…

…gives us…a 1pt win bet on Blazed @ 10/3 or 3/1 BOG  which was available from Bet365 & Betfair/Unibet respectively (I’ll use the shorter for my results, of course) at 7.40pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 8.45 Newcastle

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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