Stat of the Day, 6th June 2018

Tuesday’s Pick was…

8.45 Newcastle : Blazed @ 3/1 BOG 8th at 5/2 (Slowly away, towards rear, headway over 3f out, ridden over 1f out, stayed on same pace final furlong, no impression and no extra final 75 yards)

We continue with Wednesday’s…

4.20 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Mischief Managed @ 3/1 BOG 

A 12-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Tapeta worth £3105 to the winner… 

Why?

A 4 yr old gelding on a hat-trick after a win over course and distance was backed up by a success over the same trip at Ayr 15 days ago. He stayed on well to win late on both occasions and with no real discernible pace on offer in this contest, I expect a similar tactic to hopefully produce a similar result.

Previous track knowledge certainly helps around here and that prior C&D win was his only run at the venue, so he’s unbeaten here albeit from the smallest sample size imaginable!

His trainer Tim Easterby has had 12 winners from 75 (16% SR) for 10.3pts (+13.8% ROI) here at Wolverhampton since the start of 2015 with that low-ish ROI suggesting that his horses attract some support whilst winning more than their fair share and of the 75 mentioned…

  • handicappers are 11/65 (16.9%) for 6.33pts (+9.7%)
  • those sent off at evens to 12/1 are 12/50 (24%) for 35.3pts (+70.6%)
  • males are 10/48 (20.8%) for 18.2pts (+38%)
  • and at Class 6, it’s 8/39 (20.5%) for 3.87pts (+9.9%)

…Class 6 male handicappers at odds of Evens to 12/1 are 7/23 (30.4% SR) for 14.8pts (+64.3% ROI) profit…

Tim’s LTO winners are 6/19 (31.6% SR) for 11.5pts (+60.6% ROI) this year alone, so he’s clearly got into a rhythm of keeping in-form horses to repeat themselves, whilst since the start of 2014, his LTO winners with the CD logo next to their name are 10/51 (19.6% SR) for 34.4pts (+67.4% ROI) profit and these include…

  • over trips shorter than a mile : 6/32 (18.8%) for 34.5pts (+107.7%)
  • 6-15 days since last run : 9/26 (34.6%) for 53.9pts (+207.3%)
  • and male runners : 7/20 (35%) for 32.7pts (+93.3%)

…male runners racing over trips shorter than a mile, 6 ro 15 days after their last run/win are 4/10 (40% SR) for 43.5pts (+435% ROI)…

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Mischief Managed @ 3/1 BOG  which was widely available on Tuesday evening/Wednesday morning. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.20 Wolverhampton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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