Wednesday’s Pick was…
4.20 Wolverhampton : Mischief Managed@ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 11/4 (Soon chasing leaders on outside, pushed along and outpaced 2f out, ridden and unable to quicken over 1f out, ran on towards finish)
We continue with Thursday’s…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Quantatmental @ 11/4 BOG
A 9-runner, Class 5 Handicap for 3yo over 1m3½f on Good To Firm worth £4852 to the winner…
Here we have a 3 yr old gelding who seemed to love the switch to quicker ground when making all to win over 1m4f on his first crack at Good to Firm ground last time out. He stayed on well for a comfortable success 23 days ago and looks a progressive type that might take some catching today, especially from stall 2 against a set of rivals previously lacking a willingness to set any early pace of their own.
His trainer Tom Dascombe is a master at getting LTO winners to repeat the feat with 95 from 381 (24.9% SR) doing so since the start of 2012 and a £10 bet on each of hem would have seen you clear £1458 profit at an ROI of some 38.3% : good going for blindly backing a set of runners. If you didn’t want to back all of them, the following filters applicable today might appeal to you…
- those sent off at 8/1 and shorter are 88/284 (31%) for 87.8pts (+30.9%)
- those whose LTO win was 11-60 days earlier are 73/271 (26.9%) for 146.4pts (+54%)
- on the Flat only : 57/267 (21.4%) for 125.5pts (+47%)
- on Good to Firm ground : 19/78 (24.4%) for 23.1pts (+29.7%)
- and here at Haydock : 19/52 (36.5%) for 56.8pts (+109.1%)
and from the above, you could always just back Flat runners priced at 8/1 and shorter some 11 to 60 days after their LTO win for 40 winners from 136 (29.4% SR) for 56.3pts (+41.4% ROI) and if you did, you’d find that here at Haydock 16 of 43 (37.2%) were winners making 21.4pts (+49.7%) whilst those racing on Good to Firm won 16 of 40 (40%) for 33.85pts (+84.6%), whilst…
…Flat runners on Good to Firm ground here at Haydock priced at 8/1 and shorter are 9 from 12 (75% SR) for 28pts (+233.2% ROI) profit.
Now, much has written elsewhere (and highly likely by me in the past too) about Tom Dascombe’s (excellent) record here at Haydock, so I’m not going to plough that particularly worn furrow today, other than to say that this specific type of contest is one to follow him in, as his Class 5 handicappers are 14 from 42 (33.3% SR) for 153pts (+364.3% ROI) here over the last 2.5 seasons (assuming we’re roughly halfway through this one!).
And of those 42 Class 5 handicappers here, those racing on Good to Firm are 6/14 (42.9%) for 25.05pts (+178.9%) whilst LTO winners are 4 from 9 (44.4%) for 6.13pts (+68.2%)…
…adding a bit more weight to…a 1pt win bet on Quantatmental @ 11/4 BOG , which was available from 10Bet, Bet365, SkyBet & SportPesa at 5.25pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!