Thursday’s Pick was…
2.00 Haydock : Quantatmental @ 11/4 BOG WON at 3/1 (Made all, strongly pressed inside final furlong, held on gamely, all out to win by a nose )
We continue with Friday’s…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Oeil De Tigre @ 3/1 BOG
A 9-runner, Class 5 Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Good ground worth £4916 to the winner…
Translated as the Eye of the Tiger, as used in the Rocky films, I’ll be hoping land another knockout blow this evening with a 7 yr old gelding who was a course and distance winner last time out. That was 15 days ago on his first ever visit to this venue and was under today’s jockey Sophie Ralston, a 7lb claimer who seems to have developed a good relationship with the horse.
The horse has 3 wins and 2 places from his last 8 starts, he has 4 wins and a place from 6 runs just 8 to 15 days after he was last seen and in the 6 races with Sophie Ralston on his back he has 3 wins and a place, so conditions seem good for him here racing just 1lb worse off than his LTO win.
In addition to the above details, I’m going to keep the stats simple today (I can almost hear the cheers!), focusing on trainer Tony Carroll and his ability to keep in-form horses running well.
The basic stat is that since 2009, in Flat handicaps during the May to August period Tony’s LTO winners turned back out after a break of 11 to 75 days went on to win again on 13 of 83 occasions with that 15.7% strike rate yielding profits of 40.6pts at a very healthy ROI of 48.9%.
Now, 83 isn’t a massive sample size, but the percentages quoted made this worth a second look and as always the numbers have to fit the race conditions, so based on today’s contest, those 83 LTO winners are…
- 12/67 (17.9%) for 25.8pts (+38.5%) as males
- 12/50 (24%) for 71.3pts (+142.6%) over trips of 5.5 to 10 furlongs
- 4/26 (15.4%) for 10.06pts (+38.7%) at Class 5
- 5/25 (20%) for 12.05pts (+48.2%) on good ground
- 7/21 (33.3%) for 37.7pts (+179.4%) over trips of just 5.5 to 6 furlongs
- and LTO C&D winners are 3/7 (42.9%) for 14.95pts (+213.6%)
…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Oeil De Tigre @ 3/1 BOG , which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.40pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!