Stat of the Day, 11th June 2018

Saturday’s Pick was…

3.15 Beverley : No Lippy @ 11/4 BOG 7th at 3/1 (Chased leaders switched left 2f out, ridden and went 2nd over 1f out, wandered inside final furlong, soon weakened)

We continue with Monday’s…

4.00 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Roundabout Magic @ 11/4 BOG 

A 5-runner, Class 5 handicap for 4yo+over 5½f on Good to Firm ground worth £3752 to the winner… 

Why?

This 4 yr old colt has two wins and two places from his last six outings, so he’s clearly in good shape and was actually an SotD pick last time out 13 days ago when finishing third over 5f at Lingfield.

He was unlucky that day, beaten by just a head and a neck staying on well at the finish despite being denied a clear run. The extra half furlong should therefore help today, as should a drop in class for this horse who is 5 from 16 when ridden by Nicky Mackay, he has 4 wins in this grade, has won over this trip, has won on good to firm ground and is 1 from 2 here at Brighton, both over course and distance.

In addition to his own suitability for the task ahead, trainer Simon Dow’s handicappers dropping in class are 12/80 (15% SR) for 44.7pts (+55.9% ROI) since the start of 2016, including…

• males at 12/72 (16.9%) for 53.7pts (+75.6%)
• those last seen 6-15 days earlier are 8/24 (33.3%) for 61.9pts (+258%)
• those dropping into Class 5 are 5/23 (21.7%) for 4.9pts (+21.2%)

AND…males dropping into Class 5 contests, 6 to 15 days after their last run are 3/4 (75% SR) for 16.64pts (+416% ROI)…

…pointing to…a 1pt win bet on Roundabout Magic @ 11/4 BOG, which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 4.55pm on Sunday with plenty of 5/2 BOG on offer elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.00 Brighton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!