Stat of the Day, 12th June 2018

Monday’s Pick was…

4.00 Brighton : Roundabout Magic @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 10/3 (Never really got going/involved, raced wide and was beaten by 2.5 lengths)

We continue with Tuesday’s…

7.50 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fanfair @ 4/1 BOG

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An 8-runner, Class 5 fillies handicap for 4yo+over 1m2f on Good to Firm ground worth £3752 to the winner

Why?

Well, we’ve got a 4yr old filly here who I like for this contest for a number of reasons, so instead of the headline stat that I drill deeply into, I’m going to give you some snippets that would suggest a decent run is on the cards. (I could drill right down into the snippets, but I fear there’d be too much info and you’d get bored!)

So, we’ll start with the filly herself, back amongst her own sex after a good effort to finish third in mixed company six days ago. That was under similar conditions at Wetherby when beaten by less than 2 lengths despite a slow start coming off a 239 day absence. All her best work was done at the end of the contest, so it’s not unreasonable to suggest she’ll come on for the run.

Since the start of last season, she has made the frame in 6 of 8 races, winning twice with 2 wins and 2 places from 6 at this 1m2f trip and her only visit here in the past was a course and distance success.

Ryan Rossa takes the ride today and claims 5lbs, he’s in good touch right now, winning 5 of 27 (18.5% SR) and 3 of 14 (21.4%) over the past 14 and 7 days respectively and whilst they’re not earth shatteringh figures, they’re pretty good for a jockey still claiming 5lbs.

In addition to recent form, Ryan is 12/83 (14.5% SR) for 46.4pts (+55.9% ROI) when riding for Richard Hannon, about whom I’ve several snippets in further support of my pick, but I’ll just give you three for now, namely…

…last 2 years + Richard Hannon + Flat runners + less than 3 weeks rest = 138/826 (16.7% SR) for 225.1pts (+27.3% ROI), including…

  • on good to firm : 46/289 (15.9%) for 147pts (+50.9%)
  • females are 45/266 (16.9%) for 196.2pts (+73.8%)
  • over a 1m2f trip : 22/90 (24.4%) for 82.9pts (+92.1%)
  • females on good to firm are 12/85 (14.1%) for 132.1pts (+155.4%)
  • and females at 1m2f on good to firm are 2/8 925%) for 6.25pts (+78.1%)

…Richard Hannon + Class 5 Flat Handicaps + May to August = 59/346 (17.1% SR) for 120.3pts (+34.8% ROI) with those racing on good to firm ground winning 23 of 136 (16.9%) for 91.5pts (+67.3%)

…Richard Hannon + Lingfield Flat Handicaps = 10/58 (17.2% SR) for 8.88pts (+15.3% ROI), from which…

  • those sent off at odds of 2/1 to 8/1 are 9/39 (23.1%) for 25.8pts (+66.1%)
  • 4 yr olds are 3/8 (37.5%) for 5.02pts (+62.8%)
  • and over this 1m2f course and distance : 3/7 (42.9%) for 15.94pts (+227.7%)

…and that’s more than enough to justify…a 1pt win bet on Fanfair @ 4/1 BOG which was available from 10Bet, SportPesa & SkyBet at 5.25pm on Monday with some 9/2 BOG on offer from Bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 7.50 Lingfield

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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