Stat of the Day, 13th June 2018

Tuesday’s Pick was…

7.50 Lingfield : Fanfair @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (In rear, headway 2f out, not clear run [poorly positioned IMO] and switched right over 1f out, edged left inside final furlong, ridden and ran on, couldn’t reach winner, beaten by a head)

We continue with Wednesday’s…

3.20 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Danzay @ 3/1 BOG

A 10-runner, Class 5 handicap for 3yo over 1m on polytrack worth £4399 to the winner…

Why?

here we have a 3 yr old gelding who was a winner over 1m2f at Goodwood just five days ago when making all. The truth however is that he was hanging on for the last 2f and the line couldn’t come quick enough for him. The good news here is that (a) a drop back to a mile should therefore help him see this one out better, (b) he’s unpenalised for that win, as it was an apprentice handicap and (b) the wily Franny Norton now takes over in the saddle : an excellent judge of race pace.

And although his trainer Mark Johnston has a 15.8% strike rate at this venue (47/298), he’s not profitable to follow blindly, however…

if you backed all his 2 to 4 yr olds here sent off at 7/2 & shorter, you’d have 33 winners from 89 (37.1% SR) and 15.2pts (+17.1% ROI) profit, from which…

  • at trips of 7 to 10 furlongs : 21/52 (40.4%) for 15.2pts (+29.2%)
  • at Class 5 : 13/30 (43.3%) for 11.2pts (+37.2%)
  • and at Class 5 over trips of 7 to 10 furlongs : 11/19 (57.9%) for 15.9pts (+83.8%)

More generally, since the start of 2013 at trips of 6 to 8.5 furlongs on UK polytracks, horses who won or were beaten by less than lengths LTO and were turned back out just 2 to 5 days later, went on to win 141 of 562 (25.1% SR) quick follow-ups recording profits of 172.9pts at a healthy ROI of 30.8%. These are not trainer specific, just blindly backing quick returners who weren’t well beaten LTO.

And finally, seeing as this one did win so recently, it’s worth noting that Mark Johnston’s Class 5 handicappers who won last time out are 35/95 (36.8% SR) for 26.3pts (+27.7% ROI) profit and these include of relevance today…

  • 27 winners from 69 (39.1%) for 23.8pts (+34.5%) for those last seen 4-25 days earlier
  • 31 from 64 (48.4%) for 21.8pts (+34%0 at odds of 9/2 and shorter
  • 24 from 55 (43.6%) for 32.7pts (+59.4%) from those running at the same class as LTO
  • 17 from 35 (48.6%) for 23.4pts (+66.8%) in the June-August quarter
  • and 9 from 24 (37.5%) for 3.93pts (+16.4%) on polytrack

…and derived from the above, you could back those priced at 6/1 and shorter at the same class as an LTO win 4-25 days earlier for 20 winners from 38 (52.6% SR) and 23,2pts profit at an ROI of 60.9%…

…which would prompt…a 1pt win bet on Danzay @ 3/1 BOGGENERALLY. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 3.20 Chelmsford

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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