Stat of the Day, 15th June 2018

Thursday’s Pick was…

4.10 Yarmouth : Glencadam Master @ 3/1 BOG non-runner (heavily backed to as low as 7/4 in places, then withdrawn at 9.18am Reason: Self Cert (Not Eaten Up)

We continue with Friday’s…

7.55 Aintree :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Indian Temple @ 5/2 BOG

A 9-runner, Class 3 Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m on Good ground worth £7507 to the winner… 

Why?

We have a 9 yr old gelding who won a Class 3 handicap chase up at Perth last time out (12 days ago), when making all en route to a 13 lengths success under today’s jockey and regular rider Harry Reed. This took his chasing record to 5 wins and 6 places from 20 attempts, a decent record that includes…

  • 5 wins, 6 places from 16 in fields of 6-11 runners
  • 4 wins, 5 places from 15 for trainer Tim Reed
  • 4 wins, 5 places from 15 for jockey Harry Reed
  • 4 wins, 3 places from 10 at Class 3
  • 4 wins, 2 places from 9 on Good ground
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 3 carrying 11st 13lbs
  • 2 from 2 in June
  • 1 win, 1 place from 2 wearing cheekpieces…

…and Tim / Harry Reed + Class 3 + Good ground + 6-9 runners = 3/3 (100% SR) for 22.5pts (+750% ROI), including 2/2 in June, 1/1 carrying 11-12 and 1/1 in cheekpieces.

More generally, since the start of 2013 in UK Class 3 handicap chases at trips shorter than 3.5 miles on ground with the word “Good” in the official description, male runners who won a handicap chase last time out 6 to 20 days earlier are 78 from 334 (23.4% SR) for 71.4pts (+21.4% ROI) from which the following are relevant today…

  • those who won by more than 2 lengths LTO are 57/215 (26.5%) for 74.4pts (+34.6%)
  • those priced at 15/8 to 6/1 won 52 of 198 (26.3%) for 51.6pts (+26.1%)
  • those racing on Good ground are 45/188 (23.9%) for 24.1pts (+12.8%)
  • those who are running at the same class as LTO are 33/148 (22.3%) for 31.4pts (+21.2%)
  • over trips of 1m7.5f/2m : 13/38 (34.2%) for 27.8pts (+73.2%)
  • and this year alone : 6/18 (33.3%) for 6.64pts (+36.9%)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Indian Temple @ 5/2 BOGwhich was widely available from Betbright, Betfair, Coral, Paddy Power & 10Bet at 5.35pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 7.55 Aintree

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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