Stat of the Day, 16th June 2018

Friday’s Pick was…

7.55 Aintree : Indian Temple @ 5/2 BOG 6th at 15/8 (Disputed lead, led before 4th, headed 5 out, lost place after 3 out, weakened before last)

We continue with Saturday’s…

8.40 Leicester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Esspeegee @ 10/3 BOG

A 7-runner, Class 5 Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 2m on Good To Firm ground worth £4787 to the winner… 

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding struggled over the longer flat distances before a decision was made to drop him back to a mile and a half nine months ago.

That switch seems to have put some fire in our lad’s belly as his record over that period now stands at 6 wins and a runner-up finish (beaten by just a neck) from seven runs, all over 12/12.5 furlongs.

His last outing was 39 days ago when he won by four lengths over today’s trip in this grade under today’s jockey Darragh Keenan who 2 from 2 on him.

His trainer Alan Bailey seems to have the knack of getting his horses to win at this type of trip with 22 winners from 129 (17.1% SR) over trips of 11.5 to 12.5 furlongs generating profits of 58.6pts (+45.4% ROI) since the start of 2011.

And with today’s contest firmly in mind, those 129 runners are…

  • 21/119 (17.7%) for 50.6pts (+42.5%) in handicaps
  • 18/82 (22%) for 85.2pts (+103.9%) 11 to 45 days after their last run
  • 10/47 (21.3%) for 58.1pts (+123.6%) on the Flat
  • 11/38 (28.9%) for 56pts (+147.5%) as 5/6 yr olds
  • 8/38 (21.1%) for 52.5pts (+138%) at Class 5
  • 6/25 (24%) for 40.75pts (+163%) on good to firm ground
  • and 6 /19 (31.6%) for 20.4pts (+107.5%) as LTO winners.

That LTO winners stat is particularly relevant here, as since the start of 2014, Alan Bailey’s KTO winners are 16 from 72 (22.2% SR) for 54.3pts (+75.4% ROI), including the following of relevance today…

  • males are 12/48 (25%) for 57.5pts (+119.8%)
  • at 11 to 45 days since their last run : 12/40 (30%) for 59.75pts (+149.4%)
  • on the Flat : 7/28 (25%) for 25.3pts (+90.5%)
  • at Class 5 : 6/19 (31.6%) for 18pts (+94.5%)
  • 5 yr olds are 5/17 (29.4%) for 26.9pts (+158.5%)
  • and over 12/12.5 furlongs : 5/8 (62.5%) for 20.3pts (+254.2%)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Esspeegee @ 10/3 BOGwhich was widely available at 7.10pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 8.40 Leicester

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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