Friday’s Pick was…
7.55 Aintree : Indian Temple @ 5/2 BOG 6th at 15/8 (Disputed lead, led before 4th, headed 5 out, lost place after 3 out, weakened before last)
We continue with Saturday’s…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Esspeegee @ 10/3 BOG
A 7-runner, Class 5 Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 2m on Good To Firm ground worth £4787 to the winner…
This 5 yr old gelding struggled over the longer flat distances before a decision was made to drop him back to a mile and a half nine months ago.
That switch seems to have put some fire in our lad’s belly as his record over that period now stands at 6 wins and a runner-up finish (beaten by just a neck) from seven runs, all over 12/12.5 furlongs.
His last outing was 39 days ago when he won by four lengths over today’s trip in this grade under today’s jockey Darragh Keenan who 2 from 2 on him.
His trainer Alan Bailey seems to have the knack of getting his horses to win at this type of trip with 22 winners from 129 (17.1% SR) over trips of 11.5 to 12.5 furlongs generating profits of 58.6pts (+45.4% ROI) since the start of 2011.
And with today’s contest firmly in mind, those 129 runners are…
- 21/119 (17.7%) for 50.6pts (+42.5%) in handicaps
- 18/82 (22%) for 85.2pts (+103.9%) 11 to 45 days after their last run
- 10/47 (21.3%) for 58.1pts (+123.6%) on the Flat
- 11/38 (28.9%) for 56pts (+147.5%) as 5/6 yr olds
- 8/38 (21.1%) for 52.5pts (+138%) at Class 5
- 6/25 (24%) for 40.75pts (+163%) on good to firm ground
- and 6 /19 (31.6%) for 20.4pts (+107.5%) as LTO winners.
That LTO winners stat is particularly relevant here, as since the start of 2014, Alan Bailey’s KTO winners are 16 from 72 (22.2% SR) for 54.3pts (+75.4% ROI), including the following of relevance today…
- males are 12/48 (25%) for 57.5pts (+119.8%)
- at 11 to 45 days since their last run : 12/40 (30%) for 59.75pts (+149.4%)
- on the Flat : 7/28 (25%) for 25.3pts (+90.5%)
- at Class 5 : 6/19 (31.6%) for 18pts (+94.5%)
- 5 yr olds are 5/17 (29.4%) for 26.9pts (+158.5%)
- and over 12/12.5 furlongs : 5/8 (62.5%) for 20.3pts (+254.2%)
…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Esspeegee @ 10/3 BOG, which was widely available at 7.10pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!