Stat of the Day, 18th June 2018

Saturday’s Pick was…

8.40 Leicester : Esspeegee @ 10/3 BOG 7th at 5/1 (Took keen hold, held up tracking leaders on inside, pushed along over 4f out, hung right 2f out, weakened over 1f out)

We start the new week via Monday’s…

4.45 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Wor Lass @ 7/2 BOG

A 10-runner, Class 5 Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m5f on Good To Firm ground worth £3752 to the winner… 

Why?

This 10 yr old mare won back to back handicaps in August & September 2016 off marks of 69 and then a career-best 75 before a further 6lb hike after the second win gave her an Official Rating in the 80’s. Sadly, she wasn’t (and still isn’t) an 80+ rated horse and this manifested itself in a string of 16 defeats, mainly off marks of the mid 70’s and higher before finally getting back to winning ways last time out at Musselburgh 16 days ago.

In fairness, since dropping down the weights, she has looked revitalised this season, finishing as a runner-up at Carlisle in May when only headed inside the final furlong over 2m1f despite needing a run after a 217 day absence, before dropping back in trip by 3f for that LTO Musselburgh win 12 days later, defying a step up in class to Class 4.

She’s admittedly up 2lbs to a mark of 72 (and I’d not want her much higher than this), but she does drop back a furlong and is back down at Class 5, so this mark should still be within her grasp today, especially based on past performances, where she has…

  • 10 wins & 11 places from 46 in handicaps
  • 7 wins & 8 places from 37 going left handed
  • 9 wins & 5 places from 32 in the months of June to August
  • 6 wins & 5 places from 20 runs in Scotland
  • 4 wins & 5 places from 17 at Class 5
  • 7 wins and 2 places from 14 at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 3 wins & 3 places from 9 runs here at Ayr
  • 3 wins & 1 place from 5 at 1m5f
  • 3 wins & 1 place from 5 over course and distance
  • and 2 wins from 3 under today’s jockey Rachel Richardson.

Now, it’s fair to say that trainer Donald Whillans hasn’t really got the best out of her just yet, but I don’t believe that’s anything he’s done wrong himself. Most of this mare’s defeats have been down to her running in contests she was simply carrying too much weight to win. It should be noted that three other trainers have also failed to get her to win off a mark higher than 75 in the past.

That said, this mare loves it here at Ayr as shown above and Donald’s own record here isn’t too shabby either with 10 winners from 50 (20% SR) since the start of the 2012 campaign yielding 187pts profit at a tremendous ROI of 374% with his handicappers winning 9 of 38 923.7%) for 167.6pts (+441.1%) including…

  • 8 from 30 (26.7%) for 31.5pts (+105%) after a break of 16-75 days
  • 8 from 20 (40%) for 41.5pts (+207.5%) at odds of 7/4 to 9/1
  • 5 from 20 (25%) for 22pts (+110%) in races worth less than £4,000 to the winner
  • and 3 from 13 (23.1%) for 13.4pts (+103%) at Class 5…

…whilst those priced at 7/4 to 9/1 competing for less than £4k after a break of 16 to 75 days are 5 from 11 (45.5% SR) for 31pts (+281.8% ROI) with Class 5 runners winning 3 of 7 (42.9%) for 19.4pts (+277%)…

…pointing to…a 1pt win bet on Wor Lass @ 7/2 BOGwhich was on offer from Bet365, BetVictor & SunBets at 6.30pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.45 Ayr

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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